Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 11/10, 11:00

Prediction: UCSA vs FSC Feniks-Mariupol

Team pages: UCSA · FSC Feniks-Mariupol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

UCSA0.92

FSC Feniks-Mariupol1.72

1X2

19% 26% 55%

UCSA Draw FSC Feniks-Mariupol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

UCSA 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWDLLWLDL

FSC Feniks-Mariupol 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDWWDD

Head-to-head

UCSA 1–2–0 FSC Feniks-Mariupol (3 last)

FSC Feniks-Mariupol1-1UCSA
UCSA0-0FSC Feniks-Mariupol
FSC Feniks-Mariupol2-3UCSA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UCSA 1458 · FSC Feniks-Mariupol 1519

	UCSA	Draw	FSC Feniks-Mariupol
Our model	19%	26%	55%
Market	19%	26%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FSC Feniks-Mariupol (rating 1458 vs 1519).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UCSA	FSC Feniks-Mariupol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.50

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
X	3.10 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	2.38 → 1.61▼	Pinn 1.65

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:41 +7’	2.70	3.10	2.38
04:21 +6’	2.88▲	3.10	2.25▼
15:19 +13’	4.75▲	3.50▲	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:15 +5’	3.43	3.38	1.85
12:08 +205’	4.14▲	3.61▲	1.65▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UCSA 1–2–0 FSC Feniks-Mariupol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/11/25 Ukraine Persha Liga	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	1-1 HT 0-0	UCSA
17/08/25 Ukraine Persha Liga	UCSA	0-0 HT 0-0	FSC Feniks-Mariupol
26/08/24 Ukraine Persha Liga	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	2-3 HT 2-1	UCSA

Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	11	6	3	2	14	8	21
2	PFC Oleksandria	10	5	4	1	15	7	19
3	SC Poltava	10	5	3	2	16	7	18
4	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	10	5	2	3	20	11	17
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	10	5	2	3	17	14	17
6	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	10	4	3	3	12	9	15
7	FC Metalist Kharkiv	11	4	3	4	13	13	15
8	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	10	4	3	3	12	11	15
9	Ingulets Petrovo	9	4	2	3	10	11	14
10	Lokomotiv Kyiv	10	3	4	3	12	12	13
11	Kolos Kovalivka II	10	4	0	6	11	17	12
12	Nyva Ternopil	10	2	5	3	9	9	11
13	UCSA	10	2	4	4	14	17	10
14	FC Chernigiv	9	1	4	4	10	14	7
15	Polissya Zhytomyr II	10	1	4	5	14	20	7
16	FC Probiy Horodenka	10	1	2	7	8	27	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UCSA	FSC Feniks-Mariupol
Ahrobiznes Volochysk	2-3 L	0-2 L
FC Viktoriya Sumy	0-0 D	0-1 L
SC Poltava	0-0 D	0-3 L
Nyva Ternopil	1-0 W	0-0 D
PFC Oleksandria	4-4 D	1-1 D
Polissya Zhytomyr II	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: UCSA (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UCSA

DDWDLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-2	2-3	5	3	L
26/09	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
20/09	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
11/09	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	3-2	0	6	W
05/09	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
29/08	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
15/08	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
07/08	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/07	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	4-4	2	6	D
25/07	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-2	2-2	–	–	D

FSC Feniks-Mariupol

LLLWWDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
27/09	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-1	8	1	D
20/09	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
13/09	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
05/09	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
16/08	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
09/08	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
31/07	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
24/07	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UCSA vs FSC Feniks-Mariupol?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FSC Feniks-Mariupol win (55%). Probabilities: UCSA 19%, draw 26%, FSC Feniks-Mariupol 55%.

How many goals are expected in UCSA vs FSC Feniks-Mariupol?

The model expects 2.64 goals (UCSA 0.92 · FSC Feniks-Mariupol 1.72), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UCSA vs FSC Feniks-Mariupol?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.