Football · Mexico Liga TDP · 10/10, 23:00

Prediction: Progreso FC vs Deportiva Venados II

Team pages: Deportiva Venados II

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Progreso FC1.33
Deportiva Venados II1.19
1X2
39% 28% 33%
Progreso FC Draw Deportiva Venados II
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Progreso FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)
LDDDLDWWWL
Deportiva Venados II 2-4-4 (W-D-L)
DLDLWLLDDW
Head-to-head
Progreso FC 2–2–2 Deportiva Venados II (6 last)
  • Progreso FC2-0Deportiva Venados II
  • Deportiva Venados II0-0Progreso FC
  • Deportiva Venados II3-0Progreso FC
  • Progreso FC0-0Deportiva Venados II
  • Deportiva Venados II3-0Progreso FC
  • Progreso FC3-0Deportiva Venados II
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Progreso FC 1517 · Deportiva Venados II 1490
Progreso FCDrawDeportiva Venados II
Our model39%29%32%
Market40%27%33%
Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Progreso FCDeportiva Venados II
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 11.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.40.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/70/10%30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2.7 / 4.22.5 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.2 / 0.54.3 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Progreso FC 2–2–2 Deportiva Venados II

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DateHomeScoreAway
21/03/26
Mexico Liga TDP
Progreso FC2-0
HT 1-0
Deportiva Venados II
16/11/25
Mexico Liga TDP
Deportiva Venados II0-0
HT 0-0
Progreso FC
08/03/25
Mexico Liga TDP
Deportiva Venados II3-0
HT 2-0
Progreso FC
16/03/24
Mexico Liga TDP
Progreso FC0-0
HT 0-0
Deportiva Venados II
28/01/23
Mexico Liga TDP
Deportiva Venados II3-0
HT 2-0
Progreso FC
15/10/22
Mexico Liga TDP
Progreso FC3-0
HT 2-0
Deportiva Venados II

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentProgreso FCDeportiva Venados II
Inter Playa del Carmen II 3-1 W 1-1 D
Corsarios de Campeche 0-0 D 0-1 L
Ejidatarios de Bonfil 1-2 L 1-1 D
Record vs common 1 W 1 D 1 L 0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Progreso FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Progreso FC

LDDDLDWWWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
25/04 Lechuzas UPGCH
Mexico Liga TDP
1-1 1-2 64 L
28/03 Boston Cancun FC
Mexico Liga TDP
2-0 3-0 41 W
21/03 Deportiva Venados II
Mexico Liga TDP
1-0 2-0 35 W
13/03 Inter Playa del Carmen II
Mexico Liga TDP
0-0 3-1 48 W
14/02 Corsarios de Campeche
Mexico Liga TDP
0-0 0-0 55 D
29/11 Ejidatarios de Bonfil
Mexico Liga TDP
0-1 1-2 66 L
22/11 Boston Cancun FC
Mexico Liga TDP
0-0 1-1 87 D
16/11 Deportiva Venados II
Mexico Liga TDP
0-0 0-0 24 D
08/11 Inter Playa del Carmen II
Mexico Liga TDP
1-1 1-1 25 D
10/10 Corsarios de Campeche
Mexico Liga TDP
1-1 1-3 22 L

Deportiva Venados II

DLDLWLLDDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
03/10 ISG Sport FC
Mexico Liga TDP
1-0 2-0 43 W
26/09 Ejidatarios de Bonfil
Mexico Liga TDP
0-1 1-1 73 D
26/04 Inter Playa del Carmen II
Mexico Liga TDP
1-1 1-1 28 D
21/03 Progreso FC
Mexico Liga TDP
0-1 0-2 95 L
14/03 Corsarios de Campeche
Mexico Liga TDP
0-0 0-1 56 L
28/02 Mons Calpe SC Yucatan
Mexico Liga TDP
2-0 5-0 93 W
20/02 CD Pioneros Junior
Mexico Liga TDP
0-0 0-1 57 L
31/01 Deportivo CTM Buhos
Mexico Liga TDP
1-0 1-1 100 D
06/12 Inter Playa del Carmen II
Mexico Liga TDP
1-1 2-3 46 L
03/12 Ejidatarios de Bonfil
Mexico Liga TDP
1-1 1-1 73 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Progreso FC vs Deportiva Venados II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Progreso FC win (39%). Probabilities: Progreso FC 39%, draw 28%, Deportiva Venados II 33%.

How many goals are expected in Progreso FC vs Deportiva Venados II?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Progreso FC 1.33 · Deportiva Venados II 1.19), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Progreso FC vs Deportiva Venados II?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.