Football · Italy Serie D · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs Recanatese

Team pages: Notaresco Calcio 1924 · Recanatese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Notaresco Calcio 19241.55

Recanatese1

1X2

49% 28% 24%

Notaresco Calcio 1924 Draw Recanatese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Notaresco Calcio 1924 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDWLDW

Recanatese 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDWDLL

Head-to-head

Notaresco Calcio 1924 3–1–2 Recanatese (6 last)

Notaresco Calcio 19242-0Recanatese
Recanatese1-4Notaresco Calcio 1924
Notaresco Calcio 19241-1Recanatese
Recanatese2-0Notaresco Calcio 1924
Notaresco Calcio 19243-0Recanatese
Recanatese3-0Notaresco Calcio 1924

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Notaresco Calcio 1924 1493 · Recanatese 1497

	Notaresco Calcio 1924	Draw	Recanatese
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Notaresco Calcio 1924: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Notaresco Calcio 1924	Recanatese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.3	2.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.83▲	Bet365 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.37 ★
2	4.50 → 3.80▼	Pinn 3.86

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +17’	1.67	3.40	4.50
10:31 +9’	1.83▲	3.30▼	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +57’	1.78	3.32	3.80
13:02 +16’	1.79▲	3.37▲	3.86▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Notaresco Calcio 1924 3–1–2 Recanatese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 Italy Serie D	Notaresco Calcio 1924	2-0 HT 1-0	Recanatese
07/09/25 Italy Serie D	Recanatese	1-4	Notaresco Calcio 1924
09/02/25 Italy Serie D	Notaresco Calcio 1924	1-1 HT 0-0	Recanatese
13/10/24 Italy Serie D	Recanatese	2-0 HT 1-0	Notaresco Calcio 1924
15/05/22 Italy Serie D	Notaresco Calcio 1924	3-0 HT 1-0	Recanatese
22/12/21 Italy Serie D	Recanatese	3-0	Notaresco Calcio 1924

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	6	5	0	1	15	1	15
2	Vibonese	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
3	Sambiase	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Calcio Avola 1949	6	4	0	2	9	10	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	3	2	1	14	11	11
6	ASD Licata	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	2	3	1	8	4	9
8	Milazzo	6	3	0	3	5	8	9
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Nissa FC	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Modica	6	2	1	3	6	5	7
12	Vigor Lamezia	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
13	Siracusa	6	3	2	1	8	5	4
14	Città di Gela	6	1	2	3	4	6	4
15	ASD CastrumFavara	6	1	1	4	5	7	4
16	ASD Ragusa	6	0	2	4	4	9	2
17	Trapani	6	2	0	4	3	10	1
18	Enna Calcio	6	0	1	5	0	15	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Notaresco Calcio 1924	Recanatese
ASD K-Sport Montecchio	1-0 W	0-0 D
Polisportiva Pietralunghese	1-1 D	0-0 D
Foligno	0-1 L	4-1 W
Santegidiese	1-0 W	1-1 D
Teramo	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Notaresco Calcio 1924 (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Notaresco Calcio 1924

WLDLLDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
26/09	Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
20/09	Foligno Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Teramo Italy Serie D	0-1	2-2	2	9	D
06/09	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
17/05	Teramo Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
03/05	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	San Marino Calcio Italy Serie D	1-2	1-2	10	6	L
19/04	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W

Recanatese

LWDWDDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Maceratese Italy Serie D	2-1	2-3	4	3	L
27/09	Lanciano Italy Serie D	–	1-4	–	–	L
20/09	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
16/09	Foligno Italy Serie D	2-1	4-1	1	4	W
12/09	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Polisportiva Pietralunghese Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
26/04	Teramo Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
19/04	ASD Sora Calcio 1907 Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/04	Maceratese Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs Recanatese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Notaresco Calcio 1924 win (49%). Probabilities: Notaresco Calcio 1924 49%, draw 28%, Recanatese 24%.

How many goals are expected in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs Recanatese?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Notaresco Calcio 1924 1.55 · Recanatese 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs Recanatese?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.