Football · Argentina Torneo A · 17/10, 23:00

Prediction: Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy vs Defensores Puerto Vilelas

Team pages: Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy · Defensores Puerto Vilelas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy1.86

Defensores Puerto Vilelas0.58

1X2

67% 23% 10%

Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Draw Defensores Puerto Vilelas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWDLLD

Defensores Puerto Vilelas 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLDLWDD

Head-to-head

Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy 0–1–0 Defensores Puerto Vilelas (1 last)

Defensores Puerto Vilelas1-1Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy 1517 · Defensores Puerto Vilelas 1518

	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	Draw	Defensores Puerto Vilelas
Our model	67%	23%	10%
Market	68%	22%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	Defensores Puerto Vilelas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.5	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:55 +69’	1.33	4.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy 0–1–0 Defensores Puerto Vilelas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/10/26 Argentina Torneo A	Defensores Puerto Vilelas	1-1 HT 0-0	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Relegation round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boca Unidos	8	4	3	1	14	7	15
2	Gimnasia y Esgrima	8	4	2	2	9	2	14
3	Club Atlético El Linqueño	8	3	4	1	8	4	13
4	Sportivo Las Parejas	8	3	3	2	8	3	12
5	Defensores Puerto Vilelas	8	3	3	2	14	11	12
6	Independiente Chivilcoy	8	3	3	2	8	5	12
7	Escobar FC	8	3	2	3	7	12	11
8	Sarmiento de Resistencia	8	2	0	6	5	16	6
9	Tucuman Central	8	0	2	6	8	21	2

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy

LDWWWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
04/10	Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
27/09	Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
20/09	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
12/09	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	10	3	W
06/09	CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
30/08	CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
23/08	Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
16/08	San Martin Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
13/08	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	9	7	L

Defensores Puerto Vilelas

LWDWLDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	1-3	3-3	5	3	D
13/09	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
07/09	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
23/08	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
16/08	Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-2	3	9	L
12/08	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	2-1	4-3	2	3	W
08/08	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
03/08	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
12/07	CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy vs Defensores Puerto Vilelas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy win (67%). Probabilities: Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy 67%, draw 23%, Defensores Puerto Vilelas 10%.

How many goals are expected in Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy vs Defensores Puerto Vilelas?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy 1.86 · Defensores Puerto Vilelas 0.58), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy vs Defensores Puerto Vilelas?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.