Football · Argentina Torneo A · 11/10, 20:30

Prediction: Cipolletti vs CA Alvarado

Team pages: Cipolletti · CA Alvarado

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Cipolletti1.58

CA Alvarado0.62

1X2

60% 27% 14%

Cipolletti Draw CA Alvarado

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Cipolletti 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDWWLW

CA Alvarado 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWLDDW

Head-to-head

Cipolletti 2–1–2 CA Alvarado (5 last)

Cipolletti1-0CA Alvarado
CA Alvarado1-1Cipolletti
Cipolletti0-1CA Alvarado
CA Alvarado2-1Cipolletti
CA Alvarado0-2Cipolletti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cipolletti 1543 · CA Alvarado 1552

	Cipolletti	Draw	CA Alvarado
Our model	60%	27%	13%
Market	60%	26%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cipolletti	CA Alvarado
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/90/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.40

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:15 +73’	1.48	3.40	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cipolletti 2–1–2 CA Alvarado

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 Argentina Torneo A	Cipolletti	1-0 HT 0-0	CA Alvarado
03/11/18 Argentina Torneo A	CA Alvarado	1-1 HT 1-0	Cipolletti
15/09/18 Argentina Torneo A	Cipolletti	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Alvarado
15/10/17 Argentina Torneo A	CA Alvarado	2-1 HT 0-1	Cipolletti
16/04/17 Argentina Torneo A	CA Alvarado	0-2 HT 0-2	Cipolletti

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Main round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CA Alvarado	8	4	3	1	10	5	15
2	Cipolletti	8	4	3	1	10	7	15
3	Olimpo B Blanca	8	3	4	1	7	4	13
4	Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas	8	4	1	3	12	10	13
5	Kimberley Mar del Plata	8	3	2	3	8	6	11
6	CDA Monte Maiz	8	3	2	3	7	7	11
7	Club Villa Mitre	8	2	4	2	5	4	10
8	Huracan Las Heras	8	2	1	5	3	8	7
9	Juventud Antoniana	8	0	2	6	1	12	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cipolletti	CA Alvarado
Juventud Antoniana	2-0 W	2-0 W
Olimpo B Blanca	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas	2-2 D	3-2 W
Kimberley Mar del Plata	1-3 L	2-0 W
CDA Monte Maiz	1-0 W	1-1 D
Club Villa Mitre	1-1 D	0-0 D
Huracan Las Heras	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CA Alvarado (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cipolletti

WDWLDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	4-0	6-1	9	3	W
28/09	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
19/09	Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/09	CA Alvarado Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
06/09	Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
23/08	Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas Argentina Torneo A	0-1	2-2	19	3	D
16/08	Kimberley Mar del Plata Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-3	2	7	L
12/08	CDA Monte Maiz Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
08/08	Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
02/08	Huracan Las Heras Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

CA Alvarado

WWDDWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
27/09	Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
20/09	Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
13/09	Cipolletti Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
06/09	Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	3-2	9	6	W
30/08	Kimberley Mar del Plata Argentina Torneo A	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
23/08	CDA Monte Maiz Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
16/08	Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
12/08	Huracan Las Heras Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
08/08	Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A	0-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cipolletti vs CA Alvarado?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cipolletti win (60%). Probabilities: Cipolletti 60%, draw 27%, CA Alvarado 14%.

How many goals are expected in Cipolletti vs CA Alvarado?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Cipolletti 1.58 · CA Alvarado 0.62), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Cipolletti vs CA Alvarado?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.