Football · Dominican Republic Liga · 11/10, 22:00

Prediction: Atletico Vega Real vs Salcedo FC

Team pages: Atletico Vega Real · Salcedo FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Atletico Vega Real1.16

Salcedo FC1.5

1X2

28% 28% 44%

Atletico Vega Real Draw Salcedo FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Vega Real 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWLWWW

Salcedo FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Atletico Vega Real 1–2 Salcedo FC (3 last)

Salcedo FC3-1Atletico Vega Real
Atletico Vega Real4-3Salcedo FC
Salcedo FC1-0Atletico Vega Real

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Vega Real 1536 · Salcedo FC 1576

	Atletico Vega Real	Draw	Salcedo FC
Our model	28%	28%	44%
Market	28%	28%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salcedo FC (rating 1536 vs 1576).
H2H favours Salcedo FC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Vega Real	Salcedo FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.20

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:05 +13’	3.20	3.20	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Vega Real 1–0–2 Salcedo FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Dominican Republic Liga	Salcedo FC	3-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Vega Real
18/12/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	4-3 HT 3-2	Salcedo FC
04/10/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Salcedo FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Vega Real

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Vega Real	Salcedo FC
Universidad O&M	1-0 W	2-1 W
Moca FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Jarabacoa FC	3-1 W	2-0 W
Delfines Del Este	0-1 L	1-0 W
Atlantico FC	5-0 W	6-1 W
Cibao FC	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Salcedo FC (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Vega Real

WDWLLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
27/09	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
24/09	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
20/09	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
13/09	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-0	5-0	8	4	W
06/09	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-1	1-2	4	10	L
30/08	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
26/08	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
22/08	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/12	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-2	4-3	4	7	W

Salcedo FC

LWDWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
30/09	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
27/09	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	2-0	2-1	5	6	W
23/09	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
19/09	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
06/09	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-0	6-1	4	4	W
30/08	Atletico Vega Real Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	3-1	6	3	W
27/08	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
23/08	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
25/05	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-2	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Vega Real vs Salcedo FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Salcedo FC win (44%). Probabilities: Atletico Vega Real 28%, draw 28%, Salcedo FC 44%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Vega Real vs Salcedo FC?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Atletico Vega Real 1.16 · Salcedo FC 1.5), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Vega Real vs Salcedo FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.