Football · Ethiopia Premier League · 11/10, 14:00

Prediction: Hawassa City FC vs Mechal SC

Team pages: Hawassa City FC · Mechal SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.72Total

Hawassa City FC0.79

Mechal SC0.93

1X2

29% 34% 37%

Hawassa City FC Draw Mechal SC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 53% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Hawassa City FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWLDDL

Mechal SC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLLWLD

Head-to-head

Hawassa City FC 2–2–2 Mechal SC (6 last)

Hawassa City FC0-0Mechal SC
Mechal SC1-1Hawassa City FC
Mechal SC1-3Hawassa City FC
Hawassa City FC1-0Mechal SC
Hawassa City FC2-3Mechal SC
Mechal SC2-1Hawassa City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hawassa City FC 1454 · Mechal SC 1498

	Hawassa City FC	Draw	Mechal SC
Our model	28%	36%	36%
Market	30%	32%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 1.72 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mechal SC (rating 1454 vs 1498).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hawassa City FC	Mechal SC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.8	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X2.80

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.82

Under 1.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.29 ★
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:02 +23’	3.00	2.80	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +122’	3.29	2.65	2.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hawassa City FC 2–2–2 Mechal SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Ethiopia Premier League	Hawassa City FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Mechal SC
07/12/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Mechal SC	1-1 HT 1-0	Hawassa City FC
31/05/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Mechal SC	1-3 HT 0-1	Hawassa City FC
30/01/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Hawassa City FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Mechal SC
18/05/24 Ethiopia Premier League	Hawassa City FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Mechal SC
10/01/24 Ethiopia Premier League	Mechal SC	2-1 HT 1-0	Hawassa City FC

Standings · Ethiopia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adama City	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
2	Halaba City	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
2	Welwalo Adigrat	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	Bahir Dar Kenema FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Mechal SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Ethiopian Coffee	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Ethiopian Insurance FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Fasil Kenema	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Gamo Chencha	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Hadiya Hossana	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Hawassa City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Negelle Arsi	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Kedus Giorgis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Shaggar City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Sidama Bunna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Wolaita Dicha	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Ethio Electric FC	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hawassa City FC	Mechal SC
Adama City	2-3 L	0-0 D
Ethio Electric FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Bahir Dar Kenema FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Negelle Arsi	1-2 L	4-0 W
Ethiopian Coffee	1-0 W	1-1 D
Kedus Giorgis	0-1 L	0-3 L
Arba Minch	0-0 D	1-2 L
Hadiya Hossana	0-1 L	0-0 D
Shaggar City	1-1 D	0-2 L
Ethiopian Insurance FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 5 L	3 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mechal SC (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hawassa City FC

LDLDLWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/07	Adama City Ethiopia Premier League	1-3	2-3	4	1	L
28/06	Ethio Electric FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
21/06	Bahir Dar Kenema FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
15/06	Negelle Arsi Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
28/05	Ethiopian Coffee Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
20/05	Kedus Giorgis Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
16/05	Arba Minch Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
09/05	Hadiya Hossana Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
04/05	Shaggar City Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
29/04	Ethiopian Insurance FC Ethiopia Premier League	1-1	1-2	4	7	L

Mechal SC

WDDWDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	Hadiya Hossana Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
28/06	Shaggar City Ethiopia Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
21/06	Ethiopian Insurance FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
14/06	Kedus Giorgis Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	0-3	8	7	L
28/05	Arba Minch Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
19/05	Bahir Dar Kenema FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
14/05	Negelle Arsi Ethiopia Premier League	2-0	4-0	3	8	W
09/05	Ethiopian Coffee Ethiopia Premier League	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
04/05	Adama City Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
29/04	Ethio Electric FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hawassa City FC vs Mechal SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mechal SC win (37%). Probabilities: Hawassa City FC 29%, draw 34%, Mechal SC 37%.

How many goals are expected in Hawassa City FC vs Mechal SC?

The model expects 1.72 goals (Hawassa City FC 0.79 · Mechal SC 0.93), with a 52% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hawassa City FC vs Mechal SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.