Football · Ethiopia Premier League · 10/10, 14:00
Prediction: Kedus Giorgis vs Negelle Arsi
Team pages: Kedus Giorgis · Negelle Arsi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.7Total
Kedus Giorgis0.87
Negelle Arsi0.83
1X2
Kedus Giorgis
Draw
Negelle Arsi
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0 20%
Recent form · 10 last
Kedus Giorgis
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Negelle Arsi
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kedus Giorgis
1–1–0
Negelle Arsi
(2 last)
- Kedus Giorgis0-0Negelle Arsi
- Negelle Arsi0-1Kedus Giorgis
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kedus Giorgis 1530 · Negelle Arsi 1510
| Kedus Giorgis | Draw | Negelle Arsi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 37% | 30% |
| Market | 35% | 33% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.7 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kedus Giorgis | Negelle Arsi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.7 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.2 | 1.3 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kedus Giorgis 1–1–0 Negelle Arsi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 Ethiopia Premier League | Kedus Giorgis | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Negelle Arsi |
| 29/10/25 Ethiopia Premier League | Negelle Arsi | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Kedus Giorgis |
Standings · Ethiopia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adama City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bahir Dar Kenema FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mechal SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ethio Electric FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ethiopian Coffee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ethiopian Insurance FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fasil Kenema | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gamo Chencha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hadiya Hossana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Halaba City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hawassa City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Negelle Arsi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kedus Giorgis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shaggar City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Welwalo Adigrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wolaita Dicha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kedus Giorgis | Negelle Arsi |
|---|---|---|
| Welwalo Adigrat | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Fasil Kenema | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Mechal SC | 3-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Dire Dawa | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Hawassa City FC | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Wolaita Dicha | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Sidama Bunna | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 3 D 1 L | 4 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kedus Giorgis
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Welwalo Adigrat Ethiopia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 26/06 | Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 28/05 | Dire Dawa Ethiopia Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/05 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Ethiopian Coffee Ethiopia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Negelle Arsi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 26/06 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 20/06 | Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 15/06 | Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 21/05 | Shire Endaselassie FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 14/05 | Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 11/05 | Dire Dawa Ethiopia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/05 | Welwalo Adigrat Ethiopia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/04 | Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kedus Giorgis vs Negelle Arsi?
According to our model, the most likely result is a draw (35%). Probabilities: Kedus Giorgis 34%, draw 35%, Negelle Arsi 31%.
How many goals are expected in Kedus Giorgis vs Negelle Arsi?
The model expects 1.7 goals (Kedus Giorgis 0.87 · Negelle Arsi 0.83), with a 54% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Kedus Giorgis vs Negelle Arsi?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.