Football · India Super League · 26/10, 15:00
Prediction: Mohun Bagan SG vs Chennaiyin FC
Team pages: Mohun Bagan SG · Chennaiyin FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Mohun Bagan SG2.01
Chennaiyin FC0.57
1X2
Mohun Bagan SG
Draw
Chennaiyin FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Mohun Bagan SG
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Chennaiyin FC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mohun Bagan SG
4–1–1
Chennaiyin FC
(6 last)
- Mohun Bagan SG2-0Chennaiyin FC
- Mohun Bagan SG2-0Chennaiyin FC
- Chennaiyin FC0-0Mohun Bagan SG
- Mohun Bagan SG1-0Chennaiyin FC
- Mohun Bagan SG2-3Chennaiyin FC
- Chennaiyin FC1-3Mohun Bagan SG
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mohun Bagan SG 1573 · Chennaiyin FC 1407
| Mohun Bagan SG | Draw | Chennaiyin FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 21% | 8% |
| Market | 72% | 19% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohun Bagan SG (rating 1573 vs 1407).
- H2H favours Mohun Bagan SG: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mohun Bagan SG | Chennaiyin FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 5.4 / 10.7 | 2.1 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mohun Bagan SG 4–1–1 Chennaiyin FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/26 India Super League | Mohun Bagan SG | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chennaiyin FC |
| 25/10/25 India Super Cup | Mohun Bagan SG | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chennaiyin FC |
| 21/01/25 India Super League | Chennaiyin FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mohun Bagan SG |
| 30/11/24 India Super League | Mohun Bagan SG | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chennaiyin FC |
| 31/03/24 India Super League | Mohun Bagan SG | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Chennaiyin FC |
| 07/10/23 India Super League | Chennaiyin FC | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Mohun Bagan SG |
Standings · India Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northeast United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Bengaluru | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Punjab FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | East Bengal Club | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Mohun Bagan SG | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Kerala Blasters | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Churchill Brothers SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Goa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Mumbai City FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | Odisha FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 11 | Chennaiyin FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 11 | Inter Kashi FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Sporting Club Delhi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mohun Bagan SG | Chennaiyin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Club Delhi | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Northeast United | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| East Bengal Club | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Inter Kashi FC | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| FC Goa | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Punjab FC | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Jamshedpur FC | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Mohun Bagan SG (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mohun Bagan SG
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Sporting Club Delhi India Super League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/10 | Northeast United India Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Sporting Club Delhi India Super League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 17 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | East Bengal Club India Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | Inter Kashi FC India Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | FC Goa India Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Northeast United India Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Punjab FC India Super League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 04/04 | Jamshedpur FC India Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 20/03 | Mumbai City FC India Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 17 | 6 | L |
Chennaiyin FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Bengaluru India Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | FC Goa India Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Bengaluru India Super League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Northeast United India Super League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 06/05 | Punjab FC India Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Jamshedpur FC India Super League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Mohammedan SC India Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 17/04 | Sporting Club Delhi India Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | East Bengal Club India Super League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 07/04 | Inter Kashi FC India Super League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mohun Bagan SG vs Chennaiyin FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mohun Bagan SG win (71%). Probabilities: Mohun Bagan SG 71%, draw 20%, Chennaiyin FC 9%.
How many goals are expected in Mohun Bagan SG vs Chennaiyin FC?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Mohun Bagan SG 2.01 · Chennaiyin FC 0.57), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Mohun Bagan SG vs Chennaiyin FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.