Football · Bahrain Premier League · 22/10, 18:00

Prediction: Al-Najma Manama vs A'ali Club

Team pages: Al-Najma Manama · A'ali Club

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Al-Najma Manama1.4

A'ali Club1.17

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Al-Najma Manama Draw A'ali Club

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al-Najma Manama 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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A'ali Club 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Al-Najma Manama 1–1–4 A'ali Club (6 last)

A'ali Club2-0Al-Najma Manama
A'ali Club2-0Al-Najma Manama
Al-Najma Manama0-3A'ali Club
Al-Najma Manama1-2A'ali Club
A'ali Club1-3Al-Najma Manama
Al-Najma Manama2-2A'ali Club

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al-Najma Manama 1490 · A'ali Club 1478

	Al-Najma Manama	Draw	A'ali Club
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours A'ali Club: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al-Najma Manama	A'ali Club
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.8	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.23
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.12 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:54 +11’	2.20	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:52 +13’	2.23	3.10	3.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al-Najma Manama 1–1–4 A'ali Club

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/02/26 Bahrain Kings Cup	A'ali Club	2-0 HT 1-0	Al-Najma Manama
28/01/26 Bahrain Premier League	A'ali Club	2-0 HT 0-0	Al-Najma Manama
19/09/25 Bahrain Premier League	Al-Najma Manama	0-3 HT 0-2	A'ali Club
12/05/25 Bahrain Premier League	Al-Najma Manama	1-2 HT 0-0	A'ali Club
11/01/25 Bahrain Premier League	A'ali Club	1-3 HT 1-2	Al-Najma Manama
26/02/23 Bahrain Division 2	Al-Najma Manama	2-2 HT 1-1	A'ali Club

Standings · Bahrain Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al-Riffa	5	3	2	0	12	2	11
2	Al Khalidiyah	5	3	2	0	14	6	11
3	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	5	3	1	1	6	4	10
4	Sitra	5	2	2	1	5	2	8
5	East Riffa	5	2	1	2	5	9	7
6	Al-Ahli Manama	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
7	Al-Najma Manama	5	2	1	2	9	12	7
8	Manama	5	1	2	2	8	11	5
9	Al Hidd	5	1	2	2	4	4	5
10	Al-Muharraq	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
11	A'ali Club	5	1	1	3	4	8	4
12	Malkiya	5	0	1	4	1	9	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al-Najma Manama	A'ali Club
Al Hidd	2-2 D	1-0 W
Sitra	2-0 W	0-2 L
East Riffa	2-3 L	1-2 L
Malkiya	1-0 W	1-0 W
Al Khalidiyah	2-7 L	1-3 L
Al-Muharraq	1-3 L	0-1 L
Al Budaiya	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: A'ali Club (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al-Najma Manama

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Al Hidd Bahrain Premier League	1-0	2-2	8	7	D
11/10	Sitra Bahrain Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
11/09	East Riffa Bahrain Premier League	1-2	2-3	1	4	L
02/09	Malkiya Bahrain Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
27/08	Al Khalidiyah Bahrain Premier League	0-5	2-7	0	3	L
16/05	Al Khalidiyah Bahrain Premier League	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
10/05	Bahrain SC Bahrain Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
04/05	Al-Muharraq Bahrain Premier League	0-0	1-3	2	5	L
28/04	Malkiya Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
16/04	Al Budaiya Bahrain Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L

A'ali Club

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Sitra Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
11/10	East Riffa Bahrain Premier League	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
11/09	Malkiya Bahrain Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
04/09	Al Khalidiyah Bahrain Premier League	1-0	1-3	3	2	L
29/08	Manama Bahrain Premier League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
16/05	Al-Muharraq Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
10/05	Al Budaiya Bahrain Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	10	W
04/05	Al Hidd Bahrain Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
27/04	Sitra Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
17/04	Al-Riffa Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al-Najma Manama vs A'ali Club?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al-Najma Manama win (41%). Probabilities: Al-Najma Manama 41%, draw 29%, A'ali Club 30%.

How many goals are expected in Al-Najma Manama vs A'ali Club?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Al-Najma Manama 1.4 · A'ali Club 1.17), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al-Najma Manama vs A'ali Club?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.