Football · Bahrain Premier League · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: Malkiya vs Al-Ahli Manama

Team pages: Malkiya · Al-Ahli Manama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Malkiya0.88

Al-Ahli Manama1.31

1X2

25% 29% 46%

Malkiya Draw Al-Ahli Manama

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Malkiya 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Al-Ahli Manama 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Malkiya 0–5–1 Al-Ahli Manama (6 last)

Al-Ahli Manama0-0Malkiya
Malkiya1-1Al-Ahli Manama
Al-Ahli Manama4-3Malkiya
Malkiya1-1Al-Ahli Manama
Malkiya0-0Al-Ahli Manama
Al-Ahli Manama1-1Malkiya

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malkiya 1461 · Al-Ahli Manama 1506

	Malkiya	Draw	Al-Ahli Manama
Our model	24%	31%	45%
Market	26%	28%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al-Ahli Manama (rating 1461 vs 1506).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malkiya	Al-Ahli Manama
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.25

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +6’	3.50	3.25	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Malkiya 0–5–1 Al-Ahli Manama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Bahrain Premier League	Al-Ahli Manama	0-0 HT 0-0	Malkiya
30/10/25 Bahrain Premier League	Malkiya	1-1 HT 0-0	Al-Ahli Manama
27/05/25 Bahrain Premier League	Al-Ahli Manama	4-3 HT 3-1	Malkiya
14/02/25 Bahrain Premier League	Malkiya	1-1 HT 0-1	Al-Ahli Manama
03/04/21 Bahrain Premier League	Malkiya	0-0 HT 0-0	Al-Ahli Manama
10/12/20 Bahrain Premier League	Al-Ahli Manama	1-1 HT 0-0	Malkiya

Standings · Bahrain Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al-Riffa	5	3	2	0	12	2	11
2	Al Khalidiyah	5	3	2	0	14	6	11
3	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	5	3	1	1	6	4	10
4	Sitra	5	2	2	1	5	2	8
5	East Riffa	5	2	1	2	5	9	7
6	Al-Ahli Manama	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
7	Al-Najma Manama	5	2	1	2	9	12	7
8	Manama	5	1	2	2	8	11	5
9	Al Hidd	5	1	2	2	4	4	5
10	Al-Muharraq	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
11	A'ali Club	5	1	1	3	4	8	4
12	Malkiya	5	0	1	4	1	9	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malkiya	Al-Ahli Manama
Al-Muharraq	0-3 L	1-1 D
Al-Riffa	1-1 D	2-3 L
Sitra	0-3 L	2-0 W
Bahrain SC	4-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malkiya

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Al-Muharraq Bahrain Premier League	0-2	0-3	5	6	L
09/10	Al-Riffa Bahrain Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
11/09	A'ali Club Bahrain Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
02/09	Al-Najma Manama Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
27/08	Sitra Bahrain Premier League	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
16/05	Sitra Bahrain Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
11/05	Al-Riffa Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
03/05	Bahrain SC Bahrain Premier League	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
28/04	Al-Najma Manama Bahrain Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
18/04	Al Shabab Manama Bahrain Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	5	W

Al-Ahli Manama

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Al Khalidiyah Bahrain Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	Manama Bahrain Premier League	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
12/09	Al Ittifaq Maqaba Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
05/09	Al Hidd Bahrain Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
28/08	Al-Muharraq Bahrain Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
15/05	Al Budaiya Bahrain Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	1	D
11/05	Al Hidd Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
05/05	Sitra Bahrain Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
29/04	Al-Riffa Bahrain Premier League	0-2	2-3	4	10	L
17/04	Bahrain SC Bahrain Premier League	2-1	2-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malkiya vs Al-Ahli Manama?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al-Ahli Manama win (46%). Probabilities: Malkiya 25%, draw 29%, Al-Ahli Manama 46%.

How many goals are expected in Malkiya vs Al-Ahli Manama?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Malkiya 0.88 · Al-Ahli Manama 1.31), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Malkiya vs Al-Ahli Manama?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.