Football · Bahrain Premier League · 22/10, 18:00
Prediction: Sitra vs Al-Riffa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
Sitra0.99
Al-Riffa1.67
1X2
Sitra
Draw
Al-Riffa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sitra
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Al-Riffa
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sitra
2–2–2
Al-Riffa
(6 last)
- Sitra1-3Al-Riffa
- Al-Riffa3-0Sitra
- Sitra1-1Al-Riffa
- Al-Riffa1-2Sitra
- Al-Riffa1-3Sitra
- Al-Riffa1-1Sitra
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sitra 1510 · Al-Riffa 1594
| Sitra | Draw | Al-Riffa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| Market | 21% | 26% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al-Riffa (rating 1510 vs 1594).
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sitra | Al-Riffa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 2.5 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.6 | 4.2 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.6 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sitra 2–2–2 Al-Riffa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/26 Bahrain Premier League | Sitra | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Al-Riffa |
| 20/09/25 Bahrain Premier League | Al-Riffa | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Sitra |
| 14/04/25 Bahrain Premier League | Sitra | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Al-Riffa |
| 09/04/25 Bahrain Kings Cup | Al-Riffa | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Sitra |
| 29/03/25 Bahrain Premier League | Al-Riffa | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Sitra |
| 27/04/24 Bahrain Premier League | Al-Riffa | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sitra |
Standings · Bahrain Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Riffa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Al Khalidiyah | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Al Ittifaq Maqaba | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Sitra | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | East Riffa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Manama | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Al-Najma Manama | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 8 | Manama | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 5 |
| 9 | Al Hidd | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Muharraq | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | A'ali Club | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Malkiya | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sitra | Al-Riffa |
|---|---|---|
| A'ali Club | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| East Riffa | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| Malkiya | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Al Shabab Manama | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Al-Ahli Manama | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Al Khalidiyah | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Al-Riffa (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sitra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | A'ali Club Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Al-Najma Manama Bahrain Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Al Hidd Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/09 | East Riffa Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 27/08 | Malkiya Bahrain Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Malkiya Bahrain Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Al Shabab Manama Bahrain Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | Al-Ahli Manama Bahrain Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 27/04 | A'ali Club Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Al Khalidiyah Bahrain Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 9 | L |
Al-Riffa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | East Riffa Bahrain Premier League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 09/10 | Malkiya Bahrain Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 10/09 | Al Khalidiyah Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Manama Bahrain Premier League |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 29/08 | Al Ittifaq Maqaba Bahrain Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | Bahrain SC Bahrain Premier League |
0-2 | 3-2 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 11/05 | Malkiya Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | Al Shabab Manama Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/04 | Al-Ahli Manama Bahrain Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 17/04 | A'ali Club Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sitra vs Al-Riffa?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Al-Riffa win (52%). Probabilities: Sitra 21%, draw 27%, Al-Riffa 52%.
How many goals are expected in Sitra vs Al-Riffa?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Sitra 0.99 · Al-Riffa 1.67), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sitra vs Al-Riffa?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.