Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 10/10, 14:00

Prediction: Oppsal vs Drøbak/Frogn

Team pages: Oppsal · Drøbak/Frogn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

Oppsal1.99

Drøbak/Frogn1.86

1X2

41% 22% 36%

Oppsal Draw Drøbak/Frogn

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Oppsal 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLWWWL

Drøbak/Frogn 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWDWWW

Head-to-head

Oppsal 3–2–1 Drøbak/Frogn (6 last)

Drøbak/Frogn1-0Oppsal
Drøbak/Frogn1-1Oppsal
Oppsal1-1Drøbak/Frogn
Drøbak/Frogn0-5Oppsal
Oppsal4-1Drøbak/Frogn
Oppsal3-0Drøbak/Frogn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oppsal 1497 · Drøbak/Frogn 1545

	Oppsal	Draw	Drøbak/Frogn
Our model	41%	23%	36%
Market	42%	22%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Drøbak/Frogn (rating 1497 vs 1545).
H2H favours Oppsal: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oppsal	Drøbak/Frogn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	3.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	1.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.4	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.26
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.60 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.58 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:29 +6’	2.05	4.10	2.60
12:21 +27’	2.15▲	4.10	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +47’	2.41	3.51	2.36
03:35 +27’	2.26▼	3.51	2.52▲
07:03 +37’	2.24▼	3.50▼	2.55▲
12:02 +47’	2.26▲	3.55▲	2.58▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Oppsal 3–2–1 Drøbak/Frogn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Drøbak/Frogn	1-0 HT 1-0	Oppsal
09/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Drøbak/Frogn	1-1 HT 1-0	Oppsal
08/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Oppsal	1-1 HT 1-0	Drøbak/Frogn
15/09/18 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Drøbak/Frogn	0-5	Oppsal
26/05/18 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Oppsal	4-1 HT 2-1	Drøbak/Frogn
09/09/17 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Oppsal	3-0	Drøbak/Frogn

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	22	17	2	3	83	32	53
2	Elverum	22	14	2	6	61	36	44
3	Rade IL	22	12	4	6	70	40	40
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	22	12	2	8	36	20	38
5	Drøbak/Frogn	22	10	5	7	50	31	35
6	Ørn Horten	22	10	5	7	44	35	35
7	Sandefjord 2	22	10	3	9	54	46	33
8	Oppsal	22	10	3	9	39	35	33
9	Lyn 1896 II	22	9	4	9	47	47	31
10	Rælingen	22	9	4	9	39	54	31
11	Sarpsborg 2	22	8	4	10	50	53	28
12	Fram	22	6	5	11	39	49	23
13	Brumunddal	22	3	3	16	25	88	12
14	Bjørkelangen	22	1	0	21	16	87	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oppsal	Drøbak/Frogn
Lillehammer	2-4 L	1-2 L
Brumunddal	2-1 W	7-1 W
Fram	6-3 W	3-4 L
Sandefjord 2	1-2 L	1-0 W
Rælingen	0-1 L	2-2 D
Bjørkelangen	1-0 W	6-0 W
Sarpsborg 2	2-2 D	4-1 W
Lyn 1896 II	2-2 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Drøbak/Frogn (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oppsal

DDWLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
26/09	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
19/09	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
12/09	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	6-3	5	2	W
05/09	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
30/08	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
15/08	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
08/08	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
03/08	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
27/07	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-2	5	4	D

Drøbak/Frogn

WLWLLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
26/09	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
19/09	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	0	6	D
07/09	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	4-1	1	4	W
30/08	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	3-4	–	–	L
15/08	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
10/08	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
01/08	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
25/07	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	7-1	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oppsal vs Drøbak/Frogn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oppsal win (41%). Probabilities: Oppsal 41%, draw 22%, Drøbak/Frogn 36%.

How many goals are expected in Oppsal vs Drøbak/Frogn?

The model expects 3.84 goals (Oppsal 1.99 · Drøbak/Frogn 1.86), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Oppsal vs Drøbak/Frogn?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.