Football · Hong Kong 2nd Division · 27/09, 09:30

Prediction: Wing Go Fu Moon vs P.B Alliance

Team pages: Wing Go Fu Moon · P.B Alliance

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.35Total

Wing Go Fu Moon1.18

P.B Alliance3.18

1X2

9% 13% 78%

Wing Go Fu Moon Draw P.B Alliance

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Wing Go Fu Moon 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLLLDD

P.B Alliance 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Wing Go Fu Moon 1–1–4 P.B Alliance (6 last)

P.B Alliance3-0Wing Go Fu Moon
P.B Alliance1-4Wing Go Fu Moon
P.B Alliance2-1Wing Go Fu Moon
P.B Alliance2-0Wing Go Fu Moon
Wing Go Fu Moon3-3P.B Alliance
P.B Alliance3-0Wing Go Fu Moon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wing Go Fu Moon 1425 · P.B Alliance 1522

	Wing Go Fu Moon	Draw	P.B Alliance
Our model	10%	14%	76%
Market	8%	12%	79%

Estimated total (ours) 4.35 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours P.B Alliance (rating 1425 vs 1522).
H2H favours P.B Alliance: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wing Go Fu Moon	P.B Alliance
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 3.8	1.8 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.5	1.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.6	3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

111.00

X7.50

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.82

2 (-2.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:11 +4’	11.00	7.50	1.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wing Go Fu Moon 1–1–4 P.B Alliance

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/10/25 Hong Kong 2nd Division	P.B Alliance	3-0 HT 1-0	Wing Go Fu Moon
24/11/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division	P.B Alliance	1-4 HT 0-3	Wing Go Fu Moon
14/01/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division	P.B Alliance	2-1 HT 1-1	Wing Go Fu Moon
15/01/23 Hong Kong 2nd Division	P.B Alliance	2-0 HT 0-0	Wing Go Fu Moon
09/05/21 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Wing Go Fu Moon	3-3 HT 2-1	P.B Alliance
10/11/19 Hong Kong 2nd Division	P.B Alliance	3-0 HT 2-0	Wing Go Fu Moon

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wing Go Fu Moon	P.B Alliance
Kowloon Cricket Club	2-2 D	4-1 W
Wanchai	1-10 L	3-0 W
Kwai Tsing DFA	1-10 L	2-5 L
Tsuen Wan	2-1 W	1-5 L
Wong Tai Sin	1-1 D	1-3 L
Sparta Asia	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: P.B Alliance (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wing Go Fu Moon

DDLWLLLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
08/03	Kowloon Cricket Club Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
04/01	GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
30/11	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-4	1-10	2	2	L
16/11	Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-5	1-10	3	3	L
09/11	Kowloon Cricket Club Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	0-7	2	4	L
26/10	Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
19/10	P.B Alliance Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
05/10	Wong Tai Sin Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	1-1	1	8	D
28/09	Sparta Asia Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	2-2	3	7	D

P.B Alliance

WLLWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	3-0	13	1	W
13/09	Kowloon Cricket Club Hong Kong 2nd Division	2-1	4-1	10	0	W
31/05	Kowloon Cricket Club Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	0-5	5	2	L
17/05	Fukien Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/04	Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-3	1-5	6	2	L
08/03	Wong Tai Sin Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-3	1	1	L
08/02	Sparta Asia Hong Kong 2nd Division	3-0	3-2	2	3	W
04/01	Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-2	2-5	0	4	L
21/12	Leaper FC Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	1-5	1	3	L
14/12	Sparta Asia Hong Kong 2nd Division	2-0	2-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wing Go Fu Moon vs P.B Alliance?

According to our model, the most likely result is an P.B Alliance win (78%). Probabilities: Wing Go Fu Moon 9%, draw 13%, P.B Alliance 78%.

How many goals are expected in Wing Go Fu Moon vs P.B Alliance?

The model expects 4.35 goals (Wing Go Fu Moon 1.18 · P.B Alliance 3.18), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Wing Go Fu Moon vs P.B Alliance?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.