Football · Lebanon League · 17/10, 15:30

Prediction: Sagesse SC vs Al Ahed

Team pages: Sagesse SC · Al Ahed

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Sagesse SC1.19

Al Ahed1.63

1X2

27% 27% 46%

Sagesse SC Draw Al Ahed

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sagesse SC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWWLLL

Al Ahed 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDLDDW

Head-to-head

Sagesse SC 2–2–2 Al Ahed (6 last)

Al Ahed1-0Sagesse SC
Al Ahed0-0Sagesse SC
Sagesse SC1-3Al Ahed
Sagesse SC3-1Al Ahed
Sagesse SC2-2Al Ahed
Al Ahed1-2Sagesse SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sagesse SC 1458 · Al Ahed 1527

	Sagesse SC	Draw	Al Ahed
Our model	27%	27%	46%
Market	26%	27%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Ahed (rating 1458 vs 1527).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sagesse SC	Al Ahed
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	71/29/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.7	1.3 / 1.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.30

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +12’	3.40	3.30	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagesse SC 2–2–2 Al Ahed

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Lebanon League	Al Ahed	1-0 HT 0-0	Sagesse SC
11/02/26 Lebanon Cup	Al Ahed	0-0 HT 0-0	Sagesse SC
07/11/25 Lebanon League	Sagesse SC	1-3 HT 1-2	Al Ahed
16/07/25 Lebanon League	Sagesse SC	3-1 HT 2-0	Al Ahed
20/06/25 Lebanon League	Sagesse SC	2-2 HT 2-2	Al Ahed
07/05/25 Lebanon League	Al Ahed	1-2 HT 0-0	Sagesse SC

Standings · Lebanon League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Safa Beirut	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
2	Al Nejmeh	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
3	Tadamon Sour	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
4	Jwaya FC	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
5	Al Ansar Beirut	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Al Ahed	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
6	AC Tripoli	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	Sagesse SC	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
8	Reyady Abaseya	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
10	Akhaa Ahli Aley	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
11	Al-Mabarrah	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
12	Shabab Al-Sahel	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sagesse SC	Al Ahed
Jwaya FC	0-3 L	2-2 D
Al Ansar Beirut	1-2 L	1-1 D
Al Nejmeh	0-1 L	1-2 L
Al-Mabarrah	4-2 W	1-0 W
Shabab Al-Sahel	2-1 W	4-2 W
Safa Beirut	1-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Ahed (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sagesse SC

LWWLDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
08/10	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
03/07	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
29/06	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	0-0	4-1	6	0	W
25/06	Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League	4-1	4-2	7	1	W
20/06	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	2-2	3-3	5	6	D
16/06	Al Ahed Lebanon League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/06	Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
16/02	Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League	2-1	2-1	6	2	W
06/02	Safa Beirut Lebanon League	0-0	1-2	6	1	L

Al Ahed

WWDLLDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
09/10	AC Tripoli Lebanon League	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	2-0	2-2	2	1	D
28/07	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
24/07	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
20/07	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	–	0-2	–	–	L
16/07	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/07	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	–	3-3	–	–	D
28/06	Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League	3-0	4-2	4	2	W
24/06	Safa Beirut Lebanon League	2-1	4-1	0	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sagesse SC vs Al Ahed?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Ahed win (46%). Probabilities: Sagesse SC 27%, draw 27%, Al Ahed 46%.

How many goals are expected in Sagesse SC vs Al Ahed?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Sagesse SC 1.19 · Al Ahed 1.63), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sagesse SC vs Al Ahed?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.