Football · Lebanon League · 24/10, 20:00

Prediction: Sagesse SC vs Al-Mabarrah

Team pages: Sagesse SC · Al-Mabarrah

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Sagesse SC2.11

Al-Mabarrah0.88

1X2

65% 21% 14%

Sagesse SC Draw Al-Mabarrah

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sagesse SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWLLLD

Al-Mabarrah 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Sagesse SC 3–2–1 Al-Mabarrah (6 last)

Sagesse SC4-2Al-Mabarrah
Sagesse SC1-1Al-Mabarrah
Al-Mabarrah2-1Sagesse SC
Sagesse SC2-1Al-Mabarrah
Al-Mabarrah1-1Sagesse SC
Al-Mabarrah2-4Sagesse SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sagesse SC 1471 · Al-Mabarrah 1397

	Sagesse SC	Draw	Al-Mabarrah
Our model	65%	22%	14%
Market	65%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sagesse SC (rating 1471 vs 1397).
H2H favours Sagesse SC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sagesse SC	Al-Mabarrah
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	0.4 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.1 / 2.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/13/88%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	0.9 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.20

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +4’	1.38	4.20	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagesse SC 3–2–1 Al-Mabarrah

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Lebanon League	Sagesse SC	4-2 HT 4-1	Al-Mabarrah
17/01/26 Lebanon Cup	Sagesse SC	1-1 HT 1-1	Al-Mabarrah
14/12/25 Lebanon League	Al-Mabarrah	2-1 HT 1-0	Sagesse SC
01/12/18 Lebanon Division 2	Sagesse SC	2-1 HT 0-1	Al-Mabarrah
03/02/18 Lebanon Division 2	Al-Mabarrah	1-1 HT 1-0	Sagesse SC
10/02/17 Lebanon Division 2	Al-Mabarrah	2-4 HT 1-2	Sagesse SC

Standings · Lebanon League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jwaya FC	3	3	0	0	8	1	9
2	AC Tripoli	3	2	1	0	6	1	7
3	Tadamon Sour	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
4	Safa Beirut	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
5	Al Ahed	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
6	Al Nejmeh	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
7	Al Ansar Beirut	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Sagesse SC	3	0	1	2	2	6	1
9	Reyady Abaseya	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
10	Shabab Al-Sahel	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
11	Akhaa Ahli Aley	3	0	0	3	1	8	0
12	Al-Mabarrah	3	0	0	3	0	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sagesse SC	Al-Mabarrah
Al Ahed	1-1 D	0-1 L
Jwaya FC	0-3 L	0-3 L
Al Ansar Beirut	1-2 L	0-7 L
Al Nejmeh	0-1 L	0-5 L
Tadamon Sour	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sagesse SC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sagesse SC

WWLDWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Al Ahed Lebanon League	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
13/10	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
08/10	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
03/07	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
29/06	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	0-0	4-1	6	0	W
25/06	Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League	4-1	4-2	7	1	W
20/06	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	2-2	3-3	5	6	D
16/06	Al Ahed Lebanon League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/06	Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
16/02	Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League	2-1	2-1	6	2	W

Al-Mabarrah

LWDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	AC Tripoli Lebanon League	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
13/10	Al Ahed Lebanon League	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
09/10	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
03/07	Safa Beirut Lebanon League	0-3	0-4	3	3	L
29/06	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	0-4	0-7	2	4	L
25/06	Sagesse SC Lebanon League	1-4	2-4	2	1	L
21/06	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
16/06	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	–	1-1	1	0	D
11/06	Racing Beirut Lebanon League	–	1-0	–	–	W
21/02	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-0	0-2	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sagesse SC vs Al-Mabarrah?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sagesse SC win (65%). Probabilities: Sagesse SC 65%, draw 21%, Al-Mabarrah 14%.

How many goals are expected in Sagesse SC vs Al-Mabarrah?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Sagesse SC 2.11 · Al-Mabarrah 0.88), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sagesse SC vs Al-Mabarrah?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.