Football · Nigeria Premier League · 10/10, 17:00

Prediction: Ikorodu City FC vs Kwara United

Team pages: Ikorodu City FC · Kwara United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Ikorodu City FC1.71

Kwara United0.62

1X2

63% 25% 12%

Ikorodu City FC Draw Kwara United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Ikorodu City FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWDDLWDL

Kwara United 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Ikorodu City FC 2–2–1 Kwara United (5 last)

Ikorodu City FC1-0Kwara United
Kwara United0-0Ikorodu City FC
Ikorodu City FC2-3Kwara United
Ikorodu City FC2-1Kwara United
Kwara United0-0Ikorodu City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ikorodu City FC 1494 · Kwara United 1480

	Ikorodu City FC	Draw	Kwara United
Our model	63%	25%	12%
Market	63%	25%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ikorodu City FC: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ikorodu City FC	Kwara United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/29/29%	0/67/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	0.5 / 1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.42

X3.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	8.50 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:28 +14’	1.38	3.60	8.50
23:02 +21’	1.55▲	3.25▼	6.00▼
14:05 +7’	1.42▼	3.50▲	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ikorodu City FC 2–2–1 Kwara United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Nigeria Premier League	Ikorodu City FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Kwara United
24/08/25 Nigeria Premier League	Kwara United	0-0	Ikorodu City FC
11/08/25 World Club Friendlies	Ikorodu City FC	2-3 HT 0-1	Kwara United
09/02/25 Nigeria Premier League	Ikorodu City FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Kwara United
22/09/24 Nigeria Premier League	Kwara United	0-0	Ikorodu City FC

Standings · Nigeria Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enugu Rangers	7	5	1	1	12	7	16
2	Rivers United	7	4	3	0	13	2	15
3	Doma United	7	4	1	2	10	8	13
4	Kano Pillars	8	2	6	0	12	8	12
5	Barau FC	7	3	3	1	10	7	12
5	Ikorodu City FC	8	3	3	2	10	7	12
7	Bendel Insurance	7	4	0	3	13	11	12
8	Katsina Utd	8	3	3	2	10	11	12
9	Plateau United	7	3	2	2	9	8	11
10	Kwara United	8	3	1	4	9	9	10
10	Sporting Lagos	8	2	4	2	9	9	10
12	Niger Tornadoes	8	2	3	3	6	7	9
13	Ranchers Bees	8	2	2	4	9	10	8
14	Shooting Stars	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
15	Nasarawa United	7	2	2	3	6	8	8
16	Abia Warriors	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
17	Enyimba	8	2	1	5	11	14	7
18	Warri Wolves FC	7	2	1	4	3	6	7
19	Inter Lagos	7	1	2	4	4	10	5
20	Kun Khalifat FC	7	1	2	4	5	14	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ikorodu City FC	Kwara United
Ranchers Bees	3-1 W	2-1 W
Katsina Utd	1-4 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ikorodu City FC

WLLWDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Rivers United Nigeria Premier League	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
30/09	Sporting Lagos Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
27/09	Enugu Rangers Nigeria Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
23/09	Bendel Insurance Nigeria Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	Barau FC Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
13/09	Abia Warriors Nigeria Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Ranchers Bees Nigeria Premier League	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
24/05	Enugu Rangers Nigeria Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
10/05	Katsina Utd Nigeria Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
05/05	Wikki Tourists Nigeria Premier League	3-0	3-1	–	–	W

Kwara United

DWLDLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Ranchers Bees Nigeria Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	Kun Khalifat FC Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
23/09	Nasarawa United Nigeria Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Katsina Utd Nigeria Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
06/09	Plateau United Nigeria Premier League	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
30/08	Kano Pillars Nigeria Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
24/05	Bayelsa United Nigeria Premier League	–	0-4	–	–	L
10/05	Enyimba Nigeria Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	Niger Tornadoes Nigeria Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ikorodu City FC vs Kwara United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ikorodu City FC win (63%). Probabilities: Ikorodu City FC 63%, draw 25%, Kwara United 12%.

How many goals are expected in Ikorodu City FC vs Kwara United?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Ikorodu City FC 1.71 · Kwara United 0.62), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ikorodu City FC vs Kwara United?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.