Football · New Zealand Football Championship · 07/11, 02:00

Prediction: Auckland City vs Birkenhead United

Team pages: Auckland City · Birkenhead United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Auckland City1.7

Birkenhead United1.46

1X2

43% 24% 33%

Auckland City Draw Birkenhead United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Auckland City 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWDWWD

Birkenhead United 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Auckland City 1–1–4 Birkenhead United (6 last)

Birkenhead United3-2Auckland City
Auckland City0-1Birkenhead United
Birkenhead United3-0Auckland City
Auckland City2-1Birkenhead United
Birkenhead United2-1Auckland City
Birkenhead United1-1Auckland City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Auckland City 1607 · Birkenhead United 1596

	Auckland City	Draw	Birkenhead United
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	44%	23%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Birkenhead United: 4-1-1.
High corners: 15.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Auckland City	Birkenhead United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7	3.9 / 8.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.80

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 23:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.11
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.55 → 2.70▲	Pinn 3.21 ★

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:18 +56’	2.15	3.80	2.55
13:08 +4’	1.80▼	4.00▲	3.20▲
14:08 +15’	1.83▲	4.00	3.10▼
15:17 +28’	1.85▲	3.90▼	3.00▼
17:00 +3’	1.91▲	3.90	2.90▼
22:42 +20’	2.05▲	3.80▼	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:05 +3’	2.36	3.43	2.70
07:22 +43’	2.25▼	3.48▲	2.83▲
12:14 +1’	2.15▼	3.48	3.01▲
13:12 +1’	1.94▼	3.52▲	3.50▲
19:02 +34’	2.08▲	3.41▼	3.21▼
00:47 +3’	2.11▲	3.49▲	3.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland City 1–1–4 Birkenhead United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	3-2 HT 3-1	Auckland City
03/04/26 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	0-1 HT 0-1	Birkenhead United
05/10/25 New Zealand Football Championship	Birkenhead United	3-0 HT 1-0	Auckland City
30/07/25 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	2-1 HT 0-0	Birkenhead United
18/04/25 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	2-1 HT 1-1	Auckland City
01/12/24 New Zealand Football Championship	Birkenhead United	1-1 HT 1-1	Auckland City

Standings · New Zealand Football Championship · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	22	18	4	0	58	13	58
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	22	14	5	3	41	9	47
3	Auckland City	22	14	3	5	51	19	45
4	Auckland United FC	22	12	5	5	47	21	41
5	Fencibles United	22	13	2	7	55	36	41
6	East Coast Bays	22	10	5	7	34	35	35
7	Auckland FC II	22	8	3	11	38	40	27
8	Western Springs AFC	22	7	3	12	33	40	24
9	Melville United	22	6	2	14	24	48	20
10	Bay Olympic	22	4	4	14	23	56	16
11	Tauranga City AFC	22	4	3	15	29	52	15
12	Manukau United	22	2	1	19	14	78	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Auckland City	Birkenhead United
Cashmere Technical	1-1 D	0-4 L
Auckland United FC	3-0 W	2-3 L
Miramar Rangers	2-0 W	1-4 L
Western Springs AFC	3-1 W	3-1 W
Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Auckland City (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Auckland City

LWWWDWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
24/10	Auckland United FC New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
17/10	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
10/10	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Football Championship	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	4-2	1	8	W
13/12	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	1-1	11	8	D
06/12	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	3-0	8	0	W
30/11	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Football Championship	1-1	3-1	6	7	W
22/11	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
15/11	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Football Championship	0-2	0-3	9	5	L

Birkenhead United

WLLWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	2-0	8	0	W
25/10	Auckland FC II New Zealand Football Championship	3-0	6-1	9	4	W
18/10	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	2-0	10	3	W
10/10	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
27/09	Cashmere Technical New Zealand Football Championship	0-3	0-4	12	1	L
07/12	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Football Championship	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
29/11	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Football Championship	1-1	3-2	12	1	W
23/11	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Football Championship	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
15/11	Auckland United FC New Zealand Football Championship	0-1	2-3	12	2	L
09/11	Christchurch United New Zealand Football Championship	3-0	3-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Auckland City vs Birkenhead United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland City win (43%). Probabilities: Auckland City 43%, draw 24%, Birkenhead United 33%.

How many goals are expected in Auckland City vs Birkenhead United?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Auckland City 1.7 · Birkenhead United 1.46), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Auckland City vs Birkenhead United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.