Football · New Zealand Football Championship · 07/11, 02:00

Prediction: Wellington Olympic vs Auckland United FC

Team pages: Wellington Olympic · Auckland United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Wellington Olympic1.96

Auckland United FC1.61

1X2

46% 23% 32%

Wellington Olympic Draw Auckland United FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Wellington Olympic 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWLDWW

Auckland United FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWDWLL

Head-to-head

Wellington Olympic 4–0 Auckland United FC (4 last)

Auckland United FC0-3Wellington Olympic
Auckland United FC2-4Wellington Olympic
Auckland United FC1-3Wellington Olympic
Wellington Olympic3-1Auckland United FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wellington Olympic 1584 · Auckland United FC 1506

	Wellington Olympic	Draw	Auckland United FC
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	46%	22%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wellington Olympic (rating 1584 vs 1506).
H2H favours Wellington Olympic: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wellington Olympic	Auckland United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.4	3.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 23:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.04
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	2.75 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.05 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:05 +9’	2.00	4.00	2.75
15:38 +8’	2.05▲	4.00	2.63▼
22:59 +3’	2.00▼	4.10▲	2.70▲
23:46 +9’	1.95▼	4.10	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:05 +3’	2.04	3.77	3.03
11:37 +38’	2.21▲	3.71▼	2.75▼
15:36 +9’	2.17▼	3.74▲	2.81▲
19:13 +22’	2.10▼	3.74	2.93▲
22:46 +17’	2.04▼	3.85▲	2.99▲
23:51 +4’	2.04	3.85	2.98▼
00:45 +5’	2.04	3.96▲	3.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Olympic 4–0–0 Auckland United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/11/25 New Zealand Football Championship	Auckland United FC	0-3 HT 0-3	Wellington Olympic
07/09/25 New Zealand Cup	Auckland United FC	2-4 HT 1-2	Wellington Olympic
21/10/23 New Zealand Football Championship	Auckland United FC	1-3 HT 1-2	Wellington Olympic
05/11/22 New Zealand Football Championship	Wellington Olympic	3-1 HT 1-0	Auckland United FC

Standings · New Zealand Football Championship · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	22	18	4	0	58	13	58
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	22	14	5	3	41	9	47
3	Auckland City	22	14	3	5	51	19	45
4	Auckland United FC	22	12	5	5	47	21	41
5	Fencibles United	22	13	2	7	55	36	41
6	East Coast Bays	22	10	5	7	34	35	35
7	Auckland FC II	22	8	3	11	38	40	27
8	Western Springs AFC	22	7	3	12	33	40	24
9	Melville United	22	6	2	14	24	48	20
10	Bay Olympic	22	4	4	14	23	56	16
11	Tauranga City AFC	22	4	3	15	29	52	15
12	Manukau United	22	2	1	19	14	78	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wellington Olympic	Auckland United FC
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	4-0 W	1-2 L
Auckland City	2-2 D	0-3 L
Ferrymead Bays	1-2 L	2-0 W
Auckland FC II	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wellington Olympic (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wellington Olympic

LLWWDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
17/10	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	4-0	2	6	W
10/10	Auckland City New Zealand Football Championship	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
27/09	Auckland FC II New Zealand Football Championship	1-1	3-2	7	6	W
13/12	Auckland City New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
06/12	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Football Championship	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
30/11	Auckland United FC New Zealand Football Championship	3-0	3-0	3	1	W
22/11	Christchurch United New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	2-3	5	1	L
15/11	Auckland FC II New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	1-2	5	4	L

Auckland United FC

WLLLDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
24/10	Auckland City New Zealand Football Championship	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
18/10	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
11/10	Auckland FC II New Zealand Football Championship	0-1	2-2	10	3	D
04/10	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Football Championship	3-1	7-1	9	1	W
26/09	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Football Championship	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
07/12	Auckland FC II New Zealand Football Championship	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
30/11	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Football Championship	0-3	0-3	4	1	L
23/11	Western Suburbs New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
15/11	Birkenhead United New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	3-2	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wellington Olympic vs Auckland United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wellington Olympic win (46%). Probabilities: Wellington Olympic 46%, draw 23%, Auckland United FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Wellington Olympic vs Auckland United FC?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Wellington Olympic 1.96 · Auckland United FC 1.61), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Wellington Olympic vs Auckland United FC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.