Football · New Zealand Football Championship · 14/11, 02:00
Prediction: Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Auckland City
Team pages: Wellington Phoenix Reserves · Auckland City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.6Total
Wellington Phoenix Reserves0.86
Auckland City2.75
1X2
Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Draw
Auckland City
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
0-2 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Wellington Phoenix Reserves
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Auckland City
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wellington Phoenix Reserves
1–1–4
Auckland City
(6 last)
- Auckland City2-0Wellington Phoenix Reserves
- Auckland City3-4Wellington Phoenix Reserves
- Wellington Phoenix Reserves0-1Auckland City
- Auckland City2-0Wellington Phoenix Reserves
- Wellington Phoenix Reserves1-1Auckland City
- Auckland City4-1Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1427 · Auckland City 1615
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | Draw | Auckland City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 15% | 76% |
| Market | 9% | 14% | 77% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland City (rating 1427 vs 1615).
- H2H favours Auckland City: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | Auckland City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.5 | 2.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.8 | 3.4 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1–1–4 Auckland City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 New Zealand Football Championship | Auckland City | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
| 10/11/24 New Zealand Football Championship | Auckland City | 3-4 HT 0-3 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
| 23/09/23 New Zealand Football Championship | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Auckland City |
| 05/11/22 New Zealand Football Championship | Auckland City | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
| 20/02/21 New Zealand Football Championship | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Auckland City |
| 19/12/20 New Zealand Football Championship | Auckland City | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
Standings · New Zealand Football Championship · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 22 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 58 | 13 | 58 |
| 2 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 41 | 9 | 47 |
| 3 | Auckland City | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 19 | 45 |
| 4 | Auckland United FC | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 47 | 21 | 41 |
| 5 | Fencibles United | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 55 | 36 | 41 |
| 6 | East Coast Bays | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 35 | 35 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 40 | 27 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 40 | 24 |
| 9 | Melville United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 48 | 20 |
| 10 | Bay Olympic | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 56 | 16 |
| 11 | Tauranga City AFC | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 29 | 52 | 15 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 22 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 14 | 78 | 7 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | Auckland City |
|---|---|---|
| Birkenhead United | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Cashmere Technical | 0-10 L | 1-1 D |
| Auckland United FC | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Coastal Spirit | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland City (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wellington Phoenix Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Football Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/10 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Football Championship |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Football Championship |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Football Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 04/10 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Football Championship |
0-6 | 0-10 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/09 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Football Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 07/12 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Football Championship |
2-1 | 7-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 29/11 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Football Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 22/11 | Auckland City New Zealand Football Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/11 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Football Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
Auckland City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Football Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 01/11 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Football Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 24/10 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Football Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Football Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 10/10 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Football Championship |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 04/10 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Football Championship |
1-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 13/12 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Football Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 8 | D |
| 06/12 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Football Championship |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 30/11 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Football Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/11 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Football Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Auckland City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland City win (77%). Probabilities: Wellington Phoenix Reserves 9%, draw 15%, Auckland City 77%.
How many goals are expected in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Auckland City?
The model expects 3.6 goals (Wellington Phoenix Reserves 0.86 · Auckland City 2.75), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Auckland City?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.