Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 18/09, 23:00

Prediction: CD Platense vs Lobos UPNFM

Team pages: CD Platense · Lobos UPNFM

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

CD Platense1.36

Lobos UPNFM1.18

1X2

41% 27% 32%

CD Platense Draw Lobos UPNFM

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Platense 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLLWLD

Lobos UPNFM 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDLLLW

Head-to-head

CD Platense 4–1–1 Lobos UPNFM (6 last)

CD Platense4-1Lobos UPNFM
Lobos UPNFM1-0CD Platense
Lobos UPNFM1-1CD Platense
CD Platense4-1Lobos UPNFM
CD Platense1-0Lobos UPNFM
Lobos UPNFM1-2CD Platense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Platense 1452 · Lobos UPNFM 1451

	CD Platense	Draw	Lobos UPNFM
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	41%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Platense: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Platense	Lobos UPNFM
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.2	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	1.9 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.19
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.90 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.93 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:54 +22’	2.10	3.30	2.90
18:51 +27’	2.25▲	3.30	2.70▼
13:25 +2’	2.15▼	3.50▲	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +8’	2.22	3.10	2.84
21:04 +14’	2.19▼	3.19▲	2.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Platense 4–1–1 Lobos UPNFM

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	4-1 HT 1-1	Lobos UPNFM
27/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Platense
19/10/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Platense
10/08/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	4-1 HT 2-0	Lobos UPNFM
04/04/22 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	1-0 HT 1-0	Lobos UPNFM
10/02/22 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	1-2	CD Platense

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Marathon	7	5	2	0	12	3	17
2	Real Espana	7	4	3	0	12	4	15
3	CD Olimpia	7	4	2	1	15	7	14
4	Motagua	7	4	1	2	11	7	13
5	Genesis de Comayagua	7	3	1	3	10	6	10
6	Olancho FC	7	2	4	1	6	5	10
7	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	7	2	3	2	7	7	9
8	Estrella Roja	8	2	3	3	13	16	9
9	Lobos UPNFM	8	2	2	4	7	12	8
10	Atletico Choloma	8	2	1	5	6	8	7
11	CD Platense	8	1	2	5	6	18	5
12	Juticalpa	7	1	0	6	5	17	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Platense	Lobos UPNFM
Estrella Roja	2-2 D	2-2 D
CD Olimpia	1-4 L	0-2 L
Atletico Choloma	0-2 L	1-0 W
Genesis de Comayagua	0-3 L	0-1 L
Real Espana	0-3 L	0-2 L
Olancho FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Lobos UPNFM (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Platense

LWLLDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-2	2	7	D
04/09	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
30/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
23/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	9	9	L
15/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
08/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
01/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-4	5	2	L
26/04	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	8	2	L

Lobos UPNFM

LLWLDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	1-0	3	7	W
07/09	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
22/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-3	1-4	7	4	L
16/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
09/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
03/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
01/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
27/04	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/04	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Platense vs Lobos UPNFM?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Platense win (41%). Probabilities: CD Platense 41%, draw 27%, Lobos UPNFM 32%.

How many goals are expected in CD Platense vs Lobos UPNFM?

The model expects 2.54 goals (CD Platense 1.36 · Lobos UPNFM 1.18), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Platense vs Lobos UPNFM?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.