Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 20/09, 03:30
Prediction: Real Espana vs Motagua
Team pages: Real Espana · Motagua
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.53Total
Real Espana1.36
Motagua1.18
1X2
Real Espana
Draw
Motagua
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Real Espana
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Motagua
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Espana
1–3–2
Motagua
(6 last)
- Motagua1-1Real Espana
- Real Espana2-2Motagua
- Real Espana1-1Motagua
- Motagua0-3Real Espana
- Real Espana1-2Motagua
- Motagua3-2Real Espana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Espana 1552 · Motagua 1553
| Real Espana | Draw | Motagua | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Motagua: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Espana | Motagua | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.1 | 3.6 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Espana 1–3–2 Motagua
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Motagua | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Real Espana |
| 02/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Real Espana | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Motagua |
| 24/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Real Espana | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Motagua |
| 14/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Motagua | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Real Espana |
| 24/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Real Espana | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Motagua |
| 01/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Motagua | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Real Espana |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Marathon | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 17 |
| 2 | Real Espana | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | CD Olimpia | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Motagua | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Genesis de Comayagua | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Olancho FC | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos UPNFM | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| 10 | Atletico Choloma | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 11 | CD Platense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 5 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Espana | Motagua |
|---|---|---|
| Olancho FC | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Lobos UPNFM | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| CD Marathon | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Genesis de Comayagua | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| CD Olimpia | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Espana
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 10 | D |
| 07/09 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 09/08 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 19/05 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 13/05 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Motagua
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 10/08 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 6 | D |
| 22/05 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 19/05 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Espana vs Motagua?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Espana win (40%). Probabilities: Real Espana 40%, draw 28%, Motagua 32%.
How many goals are expected in Real Espana vs Motagua?
The model expects 2.53 goals (Real Espana 1.36 · Motagua 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Espana vs Motagua?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.