Football · Mongolia Premier League · 17/09, 13:00

Prediction: Deren FC vs FC Ulaanbaatar

Team pages: Deren FC · FC Ulaanbaatar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Deren FC1.9

FC Ulaanbaatar1.85

1X2

40% 23% 38%

Deren FC Draw FC Ulaanbaatar

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Deren FC 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Ulaanbaatar 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Deren FC 2–1–3 FC Ulaanbaatar (6 last)

FC Ulaanbaatar2-3Deren FC
Deren FC0-2FC Ulaanbaatar
FC Ulaanbaatar2-0Deren FC
Deren FC1-1FC Ulaanbaatar
FC Ulaanbaatar4-1Deren FC
Deren FC2-0FC Ulaanbaatar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deren FC 1580 · FC Ulaanbaatar 1553

	Deren FC	Draw	FC Ulaanbaatar
Our model	40%	23%	37%
Market	40%	22%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Ulaanbaatar: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deren FC	FC Ulaanbaatar
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.1	2.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.2	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.00

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:06 +14’	2.25	4.00	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deren FC 2–1–3 FC Ulaanbaatar

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/07/26 Mongolia Premier League	FC Ulaanbaatar	2-3 HT 0-2	Deren FC
27/06/26 Mongolia Premier League	Deren FC	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Ulaanbaatar
23/05/26 Mongolia Premier League	FC Ulaanbaatar	2-0 HT 1-0	Deren FC
26/10/25 Mongolia Premier League	Deren FC	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Ulaanbaatar
11/06/25 Mongolia Premier League	FC Ulaanbaatar	4-1 HT 2-0	Deren FC
09/03/25 Mongolia Premier League	Deren FC	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Ulaanbaatar

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deren FC	FC Ulaanbaatar
Central Stallions	3-0 W	2-3 L
Khangarid Klub	2-1 W	4-3 W
Khoromkhon Club	12-0 W	7-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deren FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deren FC

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/07	FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League	2-0	3-2	3	2	W
03/07	Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
30/06	Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
27/06	FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
24/06	Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
21/06	Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
18/06	Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League	0-0	6-0	6	2	W
14/06	Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League	0-1	1-2	13	3	L
23/05	FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
20/05	Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League	5-0	12-0	4	1	W

FC Ulaanbaatar

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/07	Deren FC Mongolia Premier League	0-2	2-3	2	2	L
03/07	Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League	2-1	4-3	3	2	W
30/06	Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League	0-3	2-3	5	3	L
27/06	Deren FC Mongolia Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
24/06	Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League	0-0	3-1	2	8	W
21/06	Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
17/06	Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
14/06	Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League	6-0	7-0	2	1	W
23/05	Deren FC Mongolia Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
20/05	Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League	1-0	4-1	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deren FC vs FC Ulaanbaatar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deren FC win (40%). Probabilities: Deren FC 40%, draw 23%, FC Ulaanbaatar 38%.

How many goals are expected in Deren FC vs FC Ulaanbaatar?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Deren FC 1.9 · FC Ulaanbaatar 1.85), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deren FC vs FC Ulaanbaatar?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.