Football · Argentina Championship Women · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Boca Juniors (W) vs CA Independiente Women

Team pages: Boca Juniors (W) · CA Independiente Women

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Boca Juniors (W)2.06

CA Independiente Women0.57

1X2

73% 18% 10%

Boca Juniors (W) Draw CA Independiente Women

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Boca Juniors (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWWDLW

CA Independiente Women 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLWLL

Head-to-head

Boca Juniors (W) 4–2–0 CA Independiente Women (6 last)

CA Independiente Women0-1Boca Juniors (W)
Boca Juniors (W)0-0CA Independiente Women
CA Independiente Women0-4Boca Juniors (W)
CA Independiente Women0-6Boca Juniors (W)
Boca Juniors (W)2-0CA Independiente Women
CA Independiente Women1-1Boca Juniors (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boca Juniors (W) 1546 · CA Independiente Women 1428

	Boca Juniors (W)	Draw	CA Independiente Women
Our model	71%	20%	8%
Market	74%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (W) (rating 1546 vs 1428).
H2H favours Boca Juniors (W): 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boca Juniors (W)	CA Independiente Women
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.75

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.22▼	Pinn 1.24
X	5.25 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75
2	8.00 → 8.50▲	Pinn 10.01 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:30 +5’	1.25	5.25	8.00
22:07 +34’	1.22▼	5.75▲	8.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +72’	1.24	5.32	10.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors (W) 4–2–0 CA Independiente Women

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/06/26 Argentina Championship Women	CA Independiente Women	0-1 HT 0-1	Boca Juniors (W)
17/08/25 Argentina Championship Women	Boca Juniors (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Independiente Women
25/03/25 Argentina Championship Women	CA Independiente Women	0-4 HT 0-2	Boca Juniors (W)
08/12/24 Argentina Championship Women	CA Independiente Women	0-6 HT 0-3	Boca Juniors (W)
20/07/24 Argentina Championship Women	Boca Juniors (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente Women
11/05/23 Argentina Championship Women	CA Independiente Women	1-1 HT 0-1	Boca Juniors (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Banfield (W)	9	5	3	1	14	7	18
2	San Luis FC (W)	8	6	0	2	17	11	18
3	Belgrano (W)	8	5	1	2	17	5	16
4	San Lorenzo (W)	8	4	3	1	13	6	15
5	Social Atletico Television (W)	8	4	3	1	9	4	15
6	Boca Juniors (W)	7	4	1	2	9	6	13
7	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	8	4	1	3	14	13	13
8	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	7	3	3	1	9	6	12
9	Lanus (W)	6	4	0	2	8	7	12
10	Racing Club (W)	8	3	1	4	13	9	10
11	River Plate (W)	4	3	0	1	9	3	9
12	Union Santa Fe (W)	8	2	2	4	9	15	8
13	Huracan (W)	9	2	1	6	8	14	7
14	CA Independiente Women	8	2	0	6	8	20	6
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	9	1	0	8	3	17	3
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	9	0	1	8	3	20	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boca Juniors (W)	CA Independiente Women
Huracan (W)	2-1 W	3-2 W
Belgrano (W)	0-2 L	0-6 L
Banfield (W)	0-0 D	0-3 L
Gimnasia LP (W)	2-0 W	0-2 L
Newell's Old Boys (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
Social Atletico Television (W)	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boca Juniors (W)

WDDLWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
05/09	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
22/08	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
16/08	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
08/08	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
03/08	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
27/07	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
22/07	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/07	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-2	3-3	8	3	D
08/07	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	1-0	–	–	W

CA Independiente Women

WLLLLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
05/09	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-3	2	2	L
31/08	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
24/08	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-2	3	0	L
17/08	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
10/08	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-6	0	4	L
03/08	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	11	6	L
25/07	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
17/07	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/07	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors (W) vs CA Independiente Women?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Juniors (W) win (73%). Probabilities: Boca Juniors (W) 73%, draw 18%, CA Independiente Women 10%.

How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors (W) vs CA Independiente Women?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Boca Juniors (W) 2.06 · CA Independiente Women 0.57), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Boca Juniors (W) vs CA Independiente Women?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.