Football · Kosovo Superliga · 14/09, 16:00

Prediction: KF Llapi vs Malisheva

Team pages: KF Llapi · Malisheva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

KF Llapi1.39

Malisheva1.55

1X2

33% 27% 40%

KF Llapi Draw Malisheva

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

KF Llapi 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLLLW

Malisheva 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWDWWL

Head-to-head

KF Llapi 3–2–1 Malisheva (6 last)

KF Llapi3-2Malisheva
Malisheva2-0KF Llapi
KF Llapi1-1Malisheva
KF Llapi0-0Malisheva
Malisheva1-2KF Llapi
Malisheva1-3KF Llapi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Llapi 1512 · Malisheva 1559

	KF Llapi	Draw	Malisheva
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	33%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malisheva (rating 1512 vs 1559).
H2H favours KF Llapi: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Llapi	Malisheva
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	2.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6	3.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	5.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.25

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +8’	2.75	3.25	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Llapi 3–2–1 Malisheva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Kosovo Superliga	KF Llapi	3-2	Malisheva
22/03/26 Kosovo Superliga	Malisheva	2-0 HT 0-0	KF Llapi
05/03/26 Kosovo Cup	KF Llapi	1-1 HT 0-1	Malisheva
14/12/25 Kosovo Superliga	KF Llapi	0-0 HT 0-0	Malisheva
04/10/25 Kosovo Superliga	Malisheva	1-2	KF Llapi
19/04/25 Kosovo Superliga	Malisheva	1-3 HT 0-2	KF Llapi

Standings · Kosovo Superliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Prishtina	4	4	0	0	13	3	12
2	KF Dukagjini	5	3	2	0	7	3	11
3	Malisheva	5	3	1	1	13	5	10
4	KF Gjilani	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
5	KF Ballkani	5	3	0	2	8	6	9
6	KF Drita	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
7	KF Llapi	5	1	0	4	8	13	3
8	KF Drenica Skenderaj	5	0	3	2	2	7	3
9	KF Feronikeli	5	1	0	4	2	9	3
10	KF Vushtrria	5	0	0	5	2	14	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Llapi	Malisheva
KF Vushtrria	4-0 W	6-1 W
KF Dukagjini	1-2 L	0-2 L
FC Prishtina	0-4 L	1-0 W
KF Gjilani	0-2 L	3-1 W
KF Drita	3-5 L	3-2 W
KF Ferizaj	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Malisheva (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KF Llapi

WDWWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	KF Vushtrria Kosovo Superliga	–	4-0	–	–	W
05/09	KF Dukagjini Kosovo Superliga	–	1-2	–	–	L
30/08	FC Prishtina Kosovo Superliga	0-1	0-4	4	9	L
23/08	KF Gjilani Kosovo Superliga	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
16/08	KF Drita Kosovo Superliga	2-2	3-5	–	–	L
31/05	KF Ferizaj Kosovo Superliga	2-1	3-2	6	2	W
24/05	Malisheva Kosovo Superliga	–	3-2	–	–	W
17/05	KF Gjilani Kosovo Superliga	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	KF Dukagjini Kosovo Superliga	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	KF Ballkani Kosovo Superliga	–	1-0	–	–	W

Malisheva

WDWLWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	KF Dukagjini Kosovo Superliga	0-2	0-2	7	7	L
06/09	KF Gjilani Kosovo Superliga	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
29/08	KF Feronikeli Kosovo Superliga	–	3-0	–	–	W
21/08	KF Drenica Skenderaj Kosovo Superliga	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
15/08	KF Vushtrria Kosovo Superliga	2-0	6-1	10	3	W
31/05	KF Drita Kosovo Superliga	–	3-2	–	–	W
24/05	KF Llapi Kosovo Superliga	–	2-3	–	–	L
17/05	KF Drenica Skenderaj Kosovo Superliga	–	4-1	–	–	W
10/05	KF Ferizaj Kosovo Superliga	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
02/05	FC Prishtina Kosovo Superliga	0-0	1-0	6	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Llapi vs Malisheva?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Malisheva win (40%). Probabilities: KF Llapi 33%, draw 27%, Malisheva 40%.

How many goals are expected in KF Llapi vs Malisheva?

The model expects 2.94 goals (KF Llapi 1.39 · Malisheva 1.55), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Llapi vs Malisheva?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.