Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 15/09, 14:45

Prediction: LD Sofala vs Ferroviario Maputo

Team pages: LD Sofala · Ferroviario Maputo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.62Total

LD Sofala0.87

Ferroviario Maputo0.75

1X2

36% 36% 29%

LD Sofala Draw Ferroviario Maputo

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 21%

Recent form · 10 last

LD Sofala 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLWLDL

Ferroviario Maputo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDWLLDWD

Head-to-head

LD Sofala 0–1 Ferroviario Maputo (1 last)

Ferroviario Maputo2-0LD Sofala

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LD Sofala 1438 · Ferroviario Maputo 1504

	LD Sofala	Draw	Ferroviario Maputo
Our model	35%	38%	28%
Market	36%	34%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 1.62 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviario Maputo (rating 1438 vs 1504).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LD Sofala	Ferroviario Maputo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X2.63

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.70

2 (0)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.98

Under 1.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.60
X	2.70 → 2.63▼	Bet365 2.63
2	3.50 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.34 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:59 +3’	2.15	2.70	3.50
10:57 +5’	2.45▲	2.63▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +50’	2.17	2.36	4.17
09:00 +1’	2.41▲	2.27▼	3.71▼
09:07 +56’	2.52▲	2.31▲	3.39▼
11:01	2.52	2.32▲	3.36▼
11:52 +12’	2.57▲	2.31▼	3.29▼
12:49 +32’	2.60▲	2.34▲	3.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 1.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · LD Sofala 0–0–1 Ferroviario Maputo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Maputo	2-0 HT 1-0	LD Sofala

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	17	11	5	1	25	9	38
2	Ferroviario Beira	16	9	7	0	22	8	34
3	Costa Do Sol	17	9	4	4	23	11	31
4	Ferroviario Lichinga	15	7	3	5	14	13	24
5	Ferroviario de Nampula	15	7	3	5	17	21	24
6	UD Songo	15	5	8	2	16	13	23
7	Ferroviario Maputo	18	6	5	7	13	11	23
8	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	14	5	3	6	8	11	18
9	AD Pemba	14	5	2	7	9	15	17
10	Vilankulo FC	16	3	8	5	18	16	17
11	Baía de Pemba F.C	16	3	7	6	7	11	16
12	LD Sofala	17	3	6	8	7	18	15
13	CD Maxaquene	17	1	7	9	8	19	10
14	Chingale de Tete	15	0	6	9	3	14	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LD Sofala	Ferroviario Maputo
Costa Do Sol	0-1 L	0-1 L
CD Maxaquene	0-0 D	2-2 D
UD Songo	0-1 L	0-0 D
Chingale de Tete	1-0 W	1-0 W
Ferroviario Lichinga	0-1 L	2-0 W
Vilankulo FC	1-3 L	0-0 D
Baía de Pemba F.C	0-0 D	0-0 D
Ferroviario de Nampula	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ferroviario Maputo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LD Sofala

LDLDLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
23/08	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/08	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/08	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
09/08	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
29/07	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
02/07	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
29/06	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
21/06	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	1-4	1	1	L

Ferroviario Maputo

LDWDWLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
30/08	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
25/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	2-2	11	3	D
22/08	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
18/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
06/08	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
27/07	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-0	1	0	W
25/06	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
21/06	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LD Sofala vs Ferroviario Maputo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LD Sofala win (36%). Probabilities: LD Sofala 36%, draw 36%, Ferroviario Maputo 29%.

How many goals are expected in LD Sofala vs Ferroviario Maputo?

The model expects 1.62 goals (LD Sofala 0.87 · Ferroviario Maputo 0.75), with a 56% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in LD Sofala vs Ferroviario Maputo?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.