Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 16/09, 14:45

Prediction: Ferroviario Lichinga vs Clube Ferroviário de Nacala

Team pages: Ferroviario Lichinga · Clube Ferroviário de Nacala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.88Total

Ferroviario Lichinga1.27

Clube Ferroviário de Nacala0.61

1X2

53% 29% 18%

Ferroviario Lichinga Draw Clube Ferroviário de Nacala

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviario Lichinga 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLWWLW

Clube Ferroviário de Nacala 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDDLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Ferroviario Lichinga 0–1–1 Clube Ferroviário de Nacala (2 last)

Clube Ferroviário de Nacala0-0Ferroviario Lichinga
Clube Ferroviário de Nacala2-0Ferroviario Lichinga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviario Lichinga 1517 · Clube Ferroviário de Nacala 1448

	Ferroviario Lichinga	Draw	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala
Our model	51%	32%	17%
Market	54%	28%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 1.88 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviario Lichinga (rating 1517 vs 1448).
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviario Lichinga	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	0.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.7	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.25

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	3.10 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	5.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:53 +17’	1.70	3.10	5.00
06:45 +4’	1.67▼	3.25▲	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario Lichinga 0–1–1 Clube Ferroviário de Nacala

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Mozambique Mocambola	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	0-0 HT 0-0	Ferroviario Lichinga
29/08/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	2-0 HT 1-0	Ferroviario Lichinga

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	17	11	5	1	25	9	38
2	Ferroviario Beira	16	9	7	0	22	8	34
3	Costa Do Sol	17	9	4	4	23	11	31
4	Ferroviario Lichinga	15	7	3	5	14	13	24
5	Ferroviario de Nampula	15	7	3	5	17	21	24
6	UD Songo	15	5	8	2	16	13	23
7	Ferroviario Maputo	18	6	5	7	13	11	23
8	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	14	5	3	6	8	11	18
9	AD Pemba	14	5	2	7	9	15	17
10	Vilankulo FC	16	3	8	5	18	16	17
11	Baía de Pemba F.C	16	3	7	6	7	11	16
12	LD Sofala	17	3	6	8	7	18	15
13	CD Maxaquene	17	1	7	9	8	19	10
14	Chingale de Tete	15	0	6	9	3	14	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviario Lichinga	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala
Baía de Pemba F.C	1-2 L	0-1 L
AD Pemba	1-0 W	0-1 L
LD Sofala	1-0 W	0-0 D
Ferroviario Beira	0-3 L	0-2 L
Black Bulls	0-1 L	0-1 L
CD Maxaquene	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Ferroviario Lichinga (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferroviario Lichinga

WLLDWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	3-0	3-0	5	4	W
02/09	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	1-2	5	1	L
30/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/08	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
14/08	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
10/08	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
07/08	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
27/07	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
24/07	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
29/06	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	2-1	11	1	W

Clube Ferroviário de Nacala

DDDLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/08	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
21/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
17/08	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
10/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
05/08	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	0-3	3	3	L
03/07	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
29/06	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
20/06	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
23/05	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviario Lichinga vs Clube Ferroviário de Nacala?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviario Lichinga win (53%). Probabilities: Ferroviario Lichinga 53%, draw 29%, Clube Ferroviário de Nacala 18%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviario Lichinga vs Clube Ferroviário de Nacala?

The model expects 1.88 goals (Ferroviario Lichinga 1.27 · Clube Ferroviário de Nacala 0.61), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviario Lichinga vs Clube Ferroviário de Nacala?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.