Football · Argentina Championship Women · 11/09, 20:00

Prediction: Belgrano (W) vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Team pages: Belgrano (W) · Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Belgrano (W)1.43

Ferro Carril Oeste (W)0.85

1X2

50% 29% 22%

Belgrano (W) Draw Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Belgrano (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDLWW

Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Belgrano (W) 3–1–2 Ferro Carril Oeste (W) (6 last)

Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1-0Belgrano (W)
Belgrano (W)0-0Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)0-2Belgrano (W)
Belgrano (W)0-1Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1-2Belgrano (W)
Belgrano (W)2-1Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Belgrano (W) 1551 · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1508

	Belgrano (W)	Draw	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Our model	49%	30%	21%
Market	50%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Belgrano (W) (rating 1551 vs 1508).
H2H favours Belgrano (W): 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Belgrano (W)	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	25/75/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.20

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.28
2	3.50 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.60 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:54 +4’	1.95	3.10	3.50
22:23 +2’	1.80▼	3.20▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:21 +124’	1.75	3.28	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Belgrano (W) 3–1–2 Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Championship Women	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Belgrano (W)
19/11/25 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
01/09/25 Argentina Championship Women	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Belgrano (W)
18/05/25 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
22/11/24 Argentina Championship Women	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	1-2 HT 1-2	Belgrano (W)
06/07/24 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Luis FC (W)	7	5	0	2	14	11	15
2	San Lorenzo (W)	7	4	2	1	12	5	14
3	Banfield (W)	7	4	2	1	12	6	14
4	Social Atletico Television (W)	7	4	2	1	9	4	14
5	Belgrano (W)	7	4	1	2	14	4	13
6	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	7	3	3	1	9	6	12
7	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
8	Boca Juniors (W)	6	3	1	2	7	5	10
9	River Plate (W)	4	3	0	1	9	3	9
10	Lanus (W)	5	3	0	2	6	6	9
11	Union Santa Fe (W)	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
12	Racing Club (W)	6	2	1	3	9	8	7
13	Huracan (W)	7	2	1	4	5	9	7
14	CA Independiente Women	7	2	0	5	7	18	6
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	7	0	0	7	2	13	0
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	7	0	0	7	3	19	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Belgrano (W)	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Boca Juniors (W)	2-0 W	3-3 D
Lanus (W)	3-1 W	1-0 W
San Luis FC (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
Social Atletico Television (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
Banfield (W)	1-0 W	1-2 L
Gimnasia LP (W)	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Belgrano (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Belgrano (W)

WWWLWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
30/08	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
22/08	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
16/08	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-1	10	0	D
10/08	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	1-0	6-0	4	4	W
02/08	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	2-0	4	1	W
26/07	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
17/07	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/07	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
08/07	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	2-1	–	–	W

Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

LWDLWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
24/08	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
16/08	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
09/08	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
03/08	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
27/07	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
22/07	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/07	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-2	3-3	3	3	D
08/07	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	1-0	–	–	W
04/07	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-2	10	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Belgrano (W) vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Belgrano (W) win (50%). Probabilities: Belgrano (W) 50%, draw 29%, Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 22%.

How many goals are expected in Belgrano (W) vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Belgrano (W) 1.43 · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 0.85), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Belgrano (W) vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.