Football · Ghana Premier League · 26/09, 17:00

Prediction: Karela United FC vs Hearts of Oak

Team pages: Karela United FC · Hearts of Oak

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.9Total

Karela United FC1.04

Hearts of Oak0.86

1X2

39% 33% 28%

Karela United FC Draw Hearts of Oak

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Karela United FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Hearts of Oak 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDLWWWD

Head-to-head

Karela United FC 1–3–2 Hearts of Oak (6 last)

Hearts of Oak0-0Karela United FC
Karela United FC2-0Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak0-0Karela United FC
Karela United FC0-1Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak3-1Karela United FC
Karela United FC1-1Hearts of Oak

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karela United FC 1483 · Hearts of Oak 1532

	Karela United FC	Draw	Hearts of Oak
Our model	38%	34%	28%
Market	39%	32%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.9 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hearts of Oak (rating 1483 vs 1532).
H2H favours Hearts of Oak: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karela United FC	Hearts of Oak
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.5	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.80

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +22’	2.30	2.80	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Karela United FC 1–3–2 Hearts of Oak

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Ghana Premier League	Hearts of Oak	0-0 HT 0-0	Karela United FC
07/12/25 Ghana Premier League	Karela United FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Hearts of Oak
20/04/25 Ghana Premier League	Hearts of Oak	0-0 HT 0-0	Karela United FC
17/11/24 Ghana Premier League	Karela United FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Hearts of Oak
13/04/24 Ghana Premier League	Hearts of Oak	3-1 HT 1-1	Karela United FC
04/11/23 Ghana Premier League	Karela United FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Hearts of Oak

Standings · Ghana Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hearts of Oak	3	2	1	0	6	1	7
2	Samartex	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
3	Basake Holy Stars FC	3	2	0	1	2	1	6
4	Asante Kotoko	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
5	Ashanti Gold	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
6	Swedru All Blacks Utd	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
7	Port City FC Ghana	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Aduana Stars	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
9	Bechem FC	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
10	Debibi United	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
11	Vision FC	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
12	Karela United FC	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
13	Bibiani Gold Stars	3	1	0	2	4	5	3
14	Berekum Chelsea	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
15	Young Apostles	3	1	0	2	1	6	3
16	Medeama SC	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
17	Heart of Lions	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
18	Dreams	3	0	1	2	5	8	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karela United FC	Hearts of Oak
Aduana Stars	1-2 L	0-0 D
Bechem FC	3-1 W	0-0 D
Samartex	1-3 L	0-1 L
Nations FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Vision FC	0-3 L	0-1 L
Young Apostles	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hearts of Oak (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karela United FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Aduana Stars Ghana Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
13/09	Bechem FC Ghana Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	4	W
06/09	Samartex Ghana Premier League	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
24/05	Nations FC Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
17/05	Swedru All Blacks Utd Ghana Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	Vision FC Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-3	0	1	L
06/05	Hearts of Oak Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
03/05	Young Apostles Ghana Premier League	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/04	Heart of Lions Ghana Premier League	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
05/04	Basake Holy Stars FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Hearts of Oak

WLWDDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Bechem FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Bibiani Gold Stars Ghana Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
06/09	Berekum Chelsea Ghana Premier League	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
24/05	Medeama SC Ghana Premier League	1-0	4-2	1	3	W
17/05	Samartex Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
10/05	Aduana Stars Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
06/05	Karela United FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
03/05	Nations FC Ghana Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
11/04	Vision FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
05/04	Young Apostles Ghana Premier League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karela United FC vs Hearts of Oak?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Karela United FC win (39%). Probabilities: Karela United FC 39%, draw 33%, Hearts of Oak 28%.

How many goals are expected in Karela United FC vs Hearts of Oak?

The model expects 1.9 goals (Karela United FC 1.04 · Hearts of Oak 0.86), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Karela United FC vs Hearts of Oak?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.