Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 10/09, 23:00

Prediction: Aurora vs CSD Municipal

Team pages: Aurora · CSD Municipal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Aurora0.96

CSD Municipal1.3

1X2

27% 29% 44%

Aurora Draw CSD Municipal

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Aurora 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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CSD Municipal 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Aurora 1–1–2 CSD Municipal (4 last)

CSD Municipal4-1Aurora
Aurora2-2CSD Municipal
Aurora1-0CSD Municipal
CSD Municipal2-1Aurora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aurora 1460 · CSD Municipal 1607

	Aurora	Draw	CSD Municipal
Our model	26%	31%	43%
Market	28%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSD Municipal (rating 1460 vs 1607).
H2H favours CSD Municipal: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aurora	CSD Municipal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.6	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.9	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.25

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.70 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:43 +3’	3.25	3.25	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:24 +23’	3.78	3.02	2.01
05:13 +47’	3.70▼	2.99▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aurora 1–1–2 CSD Municipal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	4-1 HT 2-0	Aurora
25/01/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	2-2 HT 1-2	CSD Municipal
05/10/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	1-0 HT 0-0	CSD Municipal
27/07/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	2-1 HT 0-1	Aurora

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSD Municipal	7	5	1	1	9	2	16
2	Antigua GFC	6	5	0	1	14	6	15
3	Deportivo San Pedro	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
4	Guastatoya	7	4	0	3	10	8	12
5	Xelaju	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
6	Deportivo Mixco	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
7	Aurora	7	3	0	4	10	11	9
8	Marquense	7	3	0	4	8	13	9
9	CSD Comunicaciones	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
10	Malacateco	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
11	Coban Imperial	7	1	1	5	7	13	4
12	Suchitepequez	7	1	1	5	6	14	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aurora	CSD Municipal
Deportivo San Pedro	1-2 L	0-0 D
CSD Comunicaciones	3-1 W	1-0 W
Xelaju	1-3 L	2-0 W
Guastatoya	0-1 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Mixco	0-4 L	2-0 W
Marquense	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CSD Municipal (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aurora

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
31/08	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/08	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	1-2	6	7	L
08/08	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-0	3-1	6	6	W
04/08	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-3	2	7	L
25/07	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
26/04	Mictlán Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	10	D
19/04	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-4	5	2	L
15/04	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

CSD Municipal

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	12	5	D
30/08	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/08	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
16/08	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
10/08	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
03/08	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	8	3	W
25/07	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
24/05	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
17/05	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
10/05	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	5-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aurora vs CSD Municipal?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CSD Municipal win (44%). Probabilities: Aurora 27%, draw 29%, CSD Municipal 44%.

How many goals are expected in Aurora vs CSD Municipal?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Aurora 0.96 · CSD Municipal 1.3), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aurora vs CSD Municipal?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.