Football · Japan L2 League Women · 06/09, 11:00

Prediction: Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) vs Renofa Yamaguchi (W)

Team pages: Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) · Renofa Yamaguchi (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Diavorosso Hiroshima (W)1.01

Renofa Yamaguchi (W)1.15

1X2

31% 30% 38%

Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) Draw Renofa Yamaguchi (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Renofa Yamaguchi (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) 1–0 Renofa Yamaguchi (W) (1 last)

Renofa Yamaguchi (W)0-1Diavorosso Hiroshima (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) 1540 · Renofa Yamaguchi (W) 1491

	Diavorosso Hiroshima (W)	Draw	Renofa Yamaguchi (W)
Our model	31%	32%	37%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) (rating 1540 vs 1491).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Diavorosso Hiroshima (W)	Renofa Yamaguchi (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	1.1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.4 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 3.09 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:54 +8’	2.80	3.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:45 +137’	2.22	2.85	3.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) 1–0–0 Renofa Yamaguchi (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Japan L2 League Women	Renofa Yamaguchi (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Diavorosso Hiroshima (W)

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Diavorosso Hiroshima (W)	Renofa Yamaguchi (W)
FC Fujizakura Yamanashi (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
SEISA OSA Rheia FC (W)	2-4 L	4-0 W
Kibi University (W)	1-1 D	0-3 L
FC Osaka Speranza (W)	1-0 W	0-1 L
FC Yamato Sylphid (W)	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Diavorosso Hiroshima (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FC Fujizakura Yamanashi (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-1	1-2	5	0	L
28/06	SEISA OSA Rheia FC (W) Japan L2 League Women	2-3	2-4	6	1	L
14/06	JFA Academy (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
07/06	Kibi University (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-0	1-1	9	0	D
30/05	Gunma FC White Star (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
23/05	FC Osaka Speranza (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
17/05	FC Yamato Sylphid (W) Japan L2 League Women	2-0	2-1	9	0	W
10/05	Renofa Yamaguchi (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
02/05	FC Fujizakura Yamanashi (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
25/04	SEISA OSA Rheia FC (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-0	1-1	9	0	D

Renofa Yamaguchi (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	FC Fujizakura Yamanashi (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
14/06	Kibi University (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-3	0-3	5	0	L
06/06	SEISA OSA Rheia FC (W) Japan L2 League Women	3-0	4-0	2	1	W
30/05	Nankatsu SC (W) Japan L2 League Women	2-0	2-0	3	0	W
16/05	FC Osaka Speranza (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
10/05	Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
26/04	FC Fujizakura Yamanashi (W) Japan L2 League Women	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
19/04	FC Yamato Sylphid (W) Japan L2 League Women	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
04/04	SEISA OSA Rheia FC (W) Japan L2 League Women	1-2	1-2	3	1	L
28/03	Nankatsu SC (W) Japan L2 League Women	1-0	1-1	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) vs Renofa Yamaguchi (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Renofa Yamaguchi (W) win (38%). Probabilities: Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) 31%, draw 30%, Renofa Yamaguchi (W) 38%.

How many goals are expected in Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) vs Renofa Yamaguchi (W)?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) 1.01 · Renofa Yamaguchi (W) 1.15), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Diavorosso Hiroshima (W) vs Renofa Yamaguchi (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.