Football · Malawi Super League · 05/09, 14:30
Prediction: MAFCO vs Moyale Barracks
Team pages: MAFCO · Moyale Barracks
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.98Total
MAFCO1.03
Moyale Barracks0.94
1X2
MAFCO
Draw
Moyale Barracks
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
MAFCO
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Moyale Barracks
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
MAFCO
2–2–2
Moyale Barracks
(6 last)
- Moyale Barracks1-1MAFCO
- MAFCO0-1Moyale Barracks
- MAFCO1-1Moyale Barracks
- MAFCO1-0Moyale Barracks
- Moyale Barracks2-1MAFCO
- MAFCO2-0Moyale Barracks
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · MAFCO 1460 · Moyale Barracks 1508
| MAFCO | Draw | Moyale Barracks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| Market | 37% | 31% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moyale Barracks (rating 1460 vs 1508).
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MAFCO | Moyale Barracks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.7 | 2.1 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MAFCO 2–2–2 Moyale Barracks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 1-1 HT 1-0 | MAFCO |
| 24/05/25 Malawi Super League | MAFCO | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Moyale Barracks |
| 31/08/24 Malawi Super League | MAFCO | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Moyale Barracks |
| 03/06/23 Malawi Super League | MAFCO | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Moyale Barracks |
| 21/08/22 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 2-1 HT 1-1 | MAFCO |
| 30/05/21 Malawi Super League | MAFCO | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Moyale Barracks |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mighty Wanderers | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 26 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Silver Strikers | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 28 |
| 3 | Big Bullets | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | Blue Eagles | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 25 |
| 5 | Masters FC | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 21 |
| 6 | Red Lions | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 19 |
| 7 | Chitipa United | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 19 |
| 8 | Moyale Barracks | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 10 | Ekhaya FC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 17 |
| 11 | Civil Service Utd | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 14 |
| 12 | MAFCO | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| 13 | Dedza Dynamos | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 13 |
| 14 | Kamuzu Barracks | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 12 |
| 15 | Karonga United | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 12 |
| 16 | Creck SC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | MAFCO | Moyale Barracks |
|---|---|---|
| Civil Service Utd | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Masters FC | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Blue Eagles | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Kamuzu Barracks | 1-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Red Lions | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Mighty Wanderers | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Moyale Barracks (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MAFCO
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 08/08 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/06 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 20/06 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
Moyale Barracks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 28/06 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in MAFCO vs Moyale Barracks?
According to our model, the most likely result is a MAFCO win (36%). Probabilities: MAFCO 36%, draw 32%, Moyale Barracks 32%.
How many goals are expected in MAFCO vs Moyale Barracks?
The model expects 1.98 goals (MAFCO 1.03 · Moyale Barracks 0.94), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in MAFCO vs Moyale Barracks?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.