Football · Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga · 06/09, 17:30

Prediction: Zeljeznicar vs Velez Mostar

Team pages: Zeljeznicar · Velez Mostar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Zeljeznicar1.06

Velez Mostar0.97

1X2

36% 32% 32%

Zeljeznicar Draw Velez Mostar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Zeljeznicar 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLDLWLDL

Velez Mostar 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLLWLD

Head-to-head

Zeljeznicar 3–1–2 Velez Mostar (6 last)

Zeljeznicar0-0Velez Mostar
Velez Mostar1-0Zeljeznicar
Zeljeznicar1-2Velez Mostar
Velez Mostar0-1Zeljeznicar
Zeljeznicar2-1Velez Mostar
Zeljeznicar2-1Velez Mostar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zeljeznicar 1437 · Velez Mostar 1476

	Zeljeznicar	Draw	Velez Mostar
Our model	36%	33%	31%
Market	37%	31%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Zeljeznicar: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zeljeznicar	Velez Mostar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.2	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.40

X2.90

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.41 ★
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.89

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +13’	2.40	2.90	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +4’	2.21	3.41	2.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zeljeznicar 3–1–2 Velez Mostar

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Zeljeznicar	0-0 HT 0-0	Velez Mostar
21/02/26 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Velez Mostar	1-0 HT 0-0	Zeljeznicar
02/11/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Zeljeznicar	1-2 HT 0-1	Velez Mostar
15/08/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Velez Mostar	0-1 HT 0-0	Zeljeznicar
25/05/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Zeljeznicar	2-1 HT 1-0	Velez Mostar
10/11/24 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Zeljeznicar	2-1 HT 0-0	Velez Mostar

Standings · Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zrinjski Mostar	5	5	0	0	13	3	15
2	Borac Banja Luka	4	3	1	0	9	3	10
3	Siroki Brijeg	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
4	FK Sarajevo	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
5	FK Sloga Doboj	4	1	2	1	1	2	5
6	NK Celik Zenica	5	1	1	3	5	6	4
7	Zeljeznicar	4	1	1	2	3	6	4
8	Velez Mostar	5	1	1	3	4	9	4
9	BSK Banja Luka	5	1	0	4	4	7	3
10	Radnik Bijeljina	5	0	3	2	5	10	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zeljeznicar	Velez Mostar
Borac Banja Luka	0-2 L	1-3 L
Zrinjski Mostar	0-2 L	0-3 L
BSK Banja Luka	2-1 W	0-2 L
FK Sarajevo	0-1 L	2-3 L
FK Sloga Doboj	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Zeljeznicar (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zeljeznicar

DLWLDLWLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Borac Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
29/08	Siroki Brijeg Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	1-1	5	0	D
23/08	Zrinjski Mostar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	0-2	0	2	L
07/08	BSK Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
25/05	FK Sarajevo Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
21/05	Siroki Brijeg Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	2-1	2-2	5	1	D
16/05	Borac Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
10/05	FK Sloga Doboj Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
01/05	Zrinjski Mostar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
25/04	Velez Mostar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	0-0	2	1	D

Velez Mostar

WDWLLLLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Radnik Bijeljina Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
28/08	NK Celik Zenica Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	0-3	2	5	L
22/08	FK Sloga Doboj Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/08	BSK Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
09/08	Borac Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
26/05	Zrinjski Mostar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	0-3	1	4	L
21/05	FK Sarajevo Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-0	2-3	2	3	L
16/05	FK Rudar Prijedor Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	3-2	4-2	3	8	W
09/05	HSK Posusje Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
01/05	Radnik Bijeljina Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zeljeznicar vs Velez Mostar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zeljeznicar win (36%). Probabilities: Zeljeznicar 36%, draw 32%, Velez Mostar 32%.

How many goals are expected in Zeljeznicar vs Velez Mostar?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Zeljeznicar 1.06 · Velez Mostar 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Zeljeznicar vs Velez Mostar?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.