Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 23/09, 16:30

Prediction: FK Ostrov vs FK Brandys nad Labem

Team pages: FK Ostrov · FK Brandys nad Labem

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

FK Ostrov2.06

FK Brandys nad Labem1.89

1X2

42% 23% 35%

FK Ostrov Draw FK Brandys nad Labem

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Ostrov 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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FK Brandys nad Labem 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWLLWL

Head-to-head

FK Ostrov 1–1 FK Brandys nad Labem (2 last)

FK Brandys nad Labem2-1FK Ostrov
FK Ostrov2-1FK Brandys nad Labem

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Ostrov 1459 · FK Brandys nad Labem 1493

	FK Ostrov	Draw	FK Brandys nad Labem
Our model	42%	22%	36%
Market	42%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Ostrov	FK Brandys nad Labem
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.2	2.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.4	2.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.3	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.90

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.19
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.30 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.69 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:58 +6’	2.35	3.90	2.30
05:56 +5’	2.15▼	3.90	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:43 +19’	2.17	3.44	2.68
12:30 +33’	2.17	3.46▲	2.66▼
14:33 +30’	2.19▲	3.52▲	2.69▲
15:14 +49’	2.19	3.53▲	2.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Ostrov 1–0–1 FK Brandys nad Labem

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/06/24 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Brandys nad Labem	2-1 HT 2-1	FK Ostrov
11/11/23 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Ostrov	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Brandys nad Labem

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	7	7	0	0	27	7	21
2	Hlucin	7	6	0	1	18	7	18
3	Kravare	7	5	1	1	19	11	16
4	FC Vratimov	7	5	0	2	14	9	15
5	Jiskra Rymarov	7	4	1	2	18	10	13
6	Opava B	7	4	1	2	16	12	13
7	TJ Novy Jicin	7	4	1	2	15	13	13
8	SK Stonava	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
9	SK Zabreh	7	3	1	3	8	8	10
10	FK Sumperk	7	2	1	4	10	12	7
11	Pusta Polom	7	2	1	4	9	14	7
12	TJ Valasske Mezirici	7	1	3	3	12	17	6
13	Bridlicna	7	1	1	5	9	18	4
14	SSK Bilovec	7	1	1	5	4	15	4
15	Frydek Mistek B	7	1	0	6	11	18	3
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	7	0	0	7	7	28	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Ostrov	FK Brandys nad Labem
SK Ujezd Praha 4	2-3 L	1-2 L
Sokol Hostoun	0-6 L	2-4 L
FC Tempo Prague	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Brandys nad Labem (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Ostrov

DWLWLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Slavoj Vysehrad Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
06/09	Slovan Velvary Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
29/08	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-3	4	11	L
16/08	Sokol Hostoun Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-6	1	2	L
08/08	FC Tempo Prague Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-3	8	4	L
13/06	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/06	SK Steti Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
30/05	Chomutov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
23/05	FC Tempo Prague Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	7	D

FK Brandys nad Labem

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
12/09	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	4-2	11	5	W
06/09	Sokol Hostoun Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	2-4	3	3	L
29/08	FC Tempo Prague Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
15/08	FC Karlovy Vary Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	4-3	3	6	W
08/08	Hvezda Cheb Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	3-4	–	–	L
13/06	Hlinsko Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	7-0	–	–	W
06/06	FK Chlumec N.C Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	FK Horni Redice Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
24/05	Spartak Police Nad Metuji Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Ostrov vs FK Brandys nad Labem?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Ostrov win (42%). Probabilities: FK Ostrov 42%, draw 23%, FK Brandys nad Labem 35%.

How many goals are expected in FK Ostrov vs FK Brandys nad Labem?

The model expects 3.94 goals (FK Ostrov 2.06 · FK Brandys nad Labem 1.89), with a 57% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Ostrov vs FK Brandys nad Labem?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.