Football · Israel Premier League · 05/09, 19:00
Prediction: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Team pages: Hapoel Beer Sheva · Maccabi Tel Aviv
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.29Total
Hapoel Beer Sheva1.7
Maccabi Tel Aviv1.59
1X2
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Draw
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Hapoel Beer Sheva
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Maccabi Tel Aviv
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hapoel Beer Sheva
3–3
Maccabi Tel Aviv
(6 last)
- Hapoel Beer Sheva1-3Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Hapoel Beer Sheva1-2Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Hapoel Beer Sheva4-2Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Maccabi Tel Aviv1-0Hapoel Beer Sheva
- Maccabi Tel Aviv1-3Hapoel Beer Sheva
- Hapoel Beer Sheva1-0Maccabi Tel Aviv
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1561 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1593
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | Draw | Maccabi Tel Aviv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | Maccabi Tel Aviv | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.2 | 2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Beer Sheva 3–0–3 Maccabi Tel Aviv
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/26 Israel Super Cup | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
| 26/05/26 Israel Cup | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
| 19/05/26 Israel Premier League | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
| 28/04/26 Israel Premier League | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
| 12/04/26 Israel Premier League | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
| 07/12/25 Israel Premier League | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
Standings · Israel Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Maccabi Netanya | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Hapoel Kiryat Shmona | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Maccabi Haifa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Hapoel Haifa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 | Beitar Jerusalem | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 | Hapoel Jerusalem FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Haifa | 2-5 L | 3-1 W |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Beitar Jerusalem | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Hapoel Petah Tikva | 4-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Hapoel Beer Sheva (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hapoel Beer Sheva
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Hapoel Ramat Gan Israel Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Maccabi Haifa Israel Premier League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 19/05 | Maccabi Tel Aviv Israel Premier League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Hapoel Tel Aviv Israel Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Beitar Jerusalem Israel Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | Hapoel Petah Tikva Israel Premier League |
3-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Maccabi Haifa Israel Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Hapoel Tel Aviv Israel Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 28/04 | Maccabi Tel Aviv Israel Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Beitar Jerusalem Israel Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
Maccabi Tel Aviv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Maccabi Haifa Israel Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Hapoel Jerusalem FC Israel Premier League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Hapoel Petah Tikva Israel Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 19/05 | Hapoel Beer Sheva Israel Premier League |
2-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Beitar Jerusalem Israel Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Maccabi Haifa Israel Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Hapoel Tel Aviv Israel Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | Hapoel Petah Tikva Israel Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Beitar Jerusalem Israel Premier League |
2-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 28/04 | Hapoel Beer Sheva Israel Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Beer Sheva win (39%). Probabilities: Hapoel Beer Sheva 39%, draw 26%, Maccabi Tel Aviv 35%.
How many goals are expected in Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
The model expects 3.29 goals (Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.7 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.59), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.