Football · England National League Premier Women · 30/08, 15:00
Prediction: Loughborough Lightning (W) vs Stoke (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.31Total
Loughborough Lightning (W)0.66
Stoke (W)2.66
1X2
Loughborough Lightning (W)
Draw
Stoke (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-2 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Loughborough Lightning (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Stoke (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Loughborough Lightning (W)
1–1–4
Stoke (W)
(6 last)
- Loughborough Lightning (W)1-0Stoke (W)
- Stoke (W)2-2Loughborough Lightning (W)
- Stoke (W)4-2Loughborough Lightning (W)
- Stoke (W)3-0Loughborough Lightning (W)
- Loughborough Lightning (W)1-3Stoke (W)
- Loughborough Lightning (W)0-3Stoke (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Loughborough Lightning (W) 1473 · Stoke (W) 1529
| Loughborough Lightning (W) | Draw | Stoke (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 6% | 15% | 79% |
| Market | 5% | 12% | 84% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stoke (W) (rating 1473 vs 1529).
- H2H favours Stoke (W): 4-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Loughborough Lightning (W) | Stoke (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.5 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.6 | 2.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0.2 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Loughborough Lightning (W) 1–1–4 Stoke (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 England National League Premier Women | Loughborough Lightning (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Stoke (W) |
| 09/11/25 England National League Premier Women | Stoke (W) | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Loughborough Lightning (W) |
| 05/12/24 England FA Cup Women | Stoke (W) | 4-2 HT 4-1 | Loughborough Lightning (W) |
| 05/03/23 England FA Premier Women | Stoke (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Loughborough Lightning (W) |
| 27/11/22 England FA Cup Women | Loughborough Lightning (W) | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Stoke (W) |
| 21/08/22 England FA Premier Women | Loughborough Lightning (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Stoke (W) |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Loughborough Lightning (W) | Stoke (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Halifax (W) | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Wolverhampton (W) | 0-5 L | 1-3 L |
| Hull (W) | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Liverpool Feds (W) | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Burnley (W) | 0-7 L | 0-3 L |
| Rugby Borough (W) | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Stoke (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Loughborough Lightning (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Huddersfield (W) England National League Premier Women |
0-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | Sporting Khalsa (W) England National League Premier Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Halifax (W) England National League Premier Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 29/03 | Stoke (W) England National League Premier Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 22/03 | Wolverhampton (W) England National League Premier Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 08/03 | Middlesbrough (W) England National League Premier Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/02 | Hull (W) England National League Premier Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/02 | Liverpool Feds (W) England National League Premier Women |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 08/02 | Burnley (W) England National League Premier Women |
0-3 | 0-7 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 25/01 | Rugby Borough (W) England National League Premier Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Stoke (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Boldmere St Michaels (W) England National League Premier Women |
0-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Burnley (W) England National League Premier Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Wolverhampton (W) England National League Premier Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 29/03 | Loughborough Lightning (W) England National League Premier Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 08/03 | Liverpool Feds (W) England National League Premier Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 01/03 | West Brom (W) England National League Premier Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 18/02 | Derby (W) England National League Premier Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 08/02 | Hull (W) England National League Premier Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/01 | Halifax (W) England National League Premier Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 16/11 | Rugby Borough (W) England National League Premier Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Loughborough Lightning (W) vs Stoke (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Stoke (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Loughborough Lightning (W) 5%, draw 13%, Stoke (W) 82%.
How many goals are expected in Loughborough Lightning (W) vs Stoke (W)?
The model expects 3.31 goals (Loughborough Lightning (W) 0.66 · Stoke (W) 2.66), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Loughborough Lightning (W) vs Stoke (W)?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.