Football · England National League Premier Women · 30/08, 15:00

Prediction: Derby (W) vs Middlesbrough (W)

Team pages: Derby (W) · Middlesbrough (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Derby (W)0.98

Middlesbrough (W)1.46

1X2

25% 27% 48%

Derby (W) Draw Middlesbrough (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Derby (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Middlesbrough (W) 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Derby (W) 4–2 Middlesbrough (W) (6 last)

Middlesbrough (W)1-0Derby (W)
Derby (W)4-0Middlesbrough (W)
Middlesbrough (W)1-4Derby (W)
Derby (W)7-0Middlesbrough (W)
Middlesbrough (W)1-3Derby (W)
Derby (W)2-3Middlesbrough (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derby (W) 1456 · Middlesbrough (W) 1535

	Derby (W)	Draw	Middlesbrough (W)
Our model	24%	29%	47%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middlesbrough (W) (rating 1456 vs 1535).
H2H favours Derby (W): 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derby (W)	Middlesbrough (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	2.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:16 +33’	3.50	3.50	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby (W) 4–0–2 Middlesbrough (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/25 England National League Premier Women	Middlesbrough (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Derby (W)
26/09/21 England FA Premier Women	Derby (W)	4-0 HT 3-0	Middlesbrough (W)
25/10/20 England FA Premier Women	Middlesbrough (W)	1-4 HT 1-4	Derby (W)
23/02/20 England FA Premier Women	Derby (W)	7-0 HT 3-0	Middlesbrough (W)
15/09/19 England FA Premier Women	Middlesbrough (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	Derby (W)
27/11/16 England FA Premier Women	Derby (W)	2-3 HT 1-1	Middlesbrough (W)

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derby (W)	Middlesbrough (W)
Rugby Borough (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
Liverpool Feds (W)	1-1 D	1-1 D
West Brom (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
Hull (W)	3-0 W	2-2 D
Sporting Khalsa (W)	1-2 L	2-1 W
Loughborough Lightning (W)	1-0 W	3-1 W
Wolverhampton (W)	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derby (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Rugby Borough (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
26/04	Liverpool Feds (W) England National League Premier Women	1-1	1-1	9	1	D
12/04	West Brom (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
29/03	Hull (W) England National League Premier Women	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
22/03	Burnley (W) England National League Premier Women	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
22/02	Sporting Khalsa (W) England National League Premier Women	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
18/02	Stoke (W) England National League Premier Women	0-1	1-1	2	1	D
18/01	Loughborough Lightning (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
30/11	Wolverhampton (W) England National League Premier Women	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
16/11	Burnley (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	0-2	1	0	L

Middlesbrough (W)

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	West Brom (W) England National League Premier Women	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
12/04	Sporting Khalsa (W) England National League Premier Women	1-1	2-1	10	5	W
29/03	Liverpool Feds (W) England National League Premier Women	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
22/03	Hull (W) England National League Premier Women	1-1	2-2	10	2	D
08/03	Loughborough Lightning (W) England National League Premier Women	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
01/03	Wolverhampton (W) England National League Premier Women	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
19/02	Halifax (W) England National League Premier Women	2-0	3-2	2	0	W
01/02	Rugby Borough (W) England National League Premier Women	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
30/11	Loughborough Lightning (W) England National League Premier Women	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
02/11	West Brom (W) England National League Premier Women	1-0	1-1	0	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derby (W) vs Middlesbrough (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Middlesbrough (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Derby (W) 25%, draw 27%, Middlesbrough (W) 48%.

How many goals are expected in Derby (W) vs Middlesbrough (W)?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Derby (W) 0.98 · Middlesbrough (W) 1.46), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Derby (W) vs Middlesbrough (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.