Football · Belarus Premier League · 18/09, 18:00
Prediction: FC ML Vitebsk vs FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
Team pages: FC ML Vitebsk · FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
FC ML Vitebsk2.18
FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk0.74
1X2
FC ML Vitebsk
Draw
FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FC ML Vitebsk
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC ML Vitebsk
4–2–0
FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
(6 last)
- FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk0-3FC ML Vitebsk
- FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk0-4FC ML Vitebsk
- FC ML Vitebsk2-2FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
- FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk1-4FC ML Vitebsk
- FC ML Vitebsk2-2FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
- FC ML Vitebsk3-1FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC ML Vitebsk (rating 1574 vs 1413).
- H2H favours FC ML Vitebsk: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC ML Vitebsk | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 0.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | – / 8.7 | – / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC ML Vitebsk 4–2–0 FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Belarus Premier League | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | 0-3 HT 0-2 | FC ML Vitebsk |
| 10/08/25 Belarus Premier League | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | 0-4 HT 0-1 | FC ML Vitebsk |
| 29/03/25 Belarus Premier League | FC ML Vitebsk | 2-2 HT 0-1 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk |
| 11/11/23 Belarus Division 1 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | 1-4 HT 1-2 | FC ML Vitebsk |
| 09/07/23 Belarus Division 1 | FC ML Vitebsk | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk |
| 20/11/22 Belarus Play-Offs | FC ML Vitebsk | 3-1 HT 1-0 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk |
Standings · Belarus Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isloch | 21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 36 | 16 | 45 |
| 2 | FC ML Vitebsk | 20 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 37 | 16 | 41 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 16 | 40 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 21 | 37 |
| 5 | FK Gomel | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 18 | 36 |
| 6 | Neman Grodno | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 19 | 34 |
| 7 | FC Minsk | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 34 |
| 8 | FC Vitebsk | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 33 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 23 | 27 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 25 | 25 |
| 11 | FC Baranovichi | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 36 | 25 |
| 12 | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 23 |
| 13 | BATE Borisov | 21 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 18 |
| 14 | Belshina Bobruisk | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 36 | 18 |
| 15 | Dnepr Mogilev | 22 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 32 | 16 |
| 16 | Naftan Novopolotsk | 22 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 54 | 11 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC ML Vitebsk | FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk |
|---|---|---|
| Belshina Bobruisk | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| FC Baranovichi | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Slavia Mozyr | 4-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Naftan Novopolotsk | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| FC Minsk | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| FC Vitebsk | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: FC ML Vitebsk (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC ML Vitebsk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Dnepr Mogilev Belarus Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Dinamo Minsk Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 02/09 | Belshina Bobruisk Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Dinamo Brest Belarus Premier League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | BATE Borisov Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 19/08 | FC Baranovichi Belarus Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | Slavia Mozyr Belarus Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Naftan Novopolotsk Belarus Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | FC Minsk Belarus Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 13/06 | FC Vitebsk Belarus Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | FC Baranovichi Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 07/09 | Isloch Belarus Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Torpedo Zhodino Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Belshina Bobruisk Belarus Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/08 | Slavia Mozyr Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 07/08 | Naftan Novopolotsk Belarus Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | FC Minsk Belarus Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 12/07 | FC Vitebsk Belarus Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Neman Grodno Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/06 | FK Gomel Belarus Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC ML Vitebsk vs FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC ML Vitebsk win (70%). Probabilities: FC ML Vitebsk 70%, draw 20%, FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 10%.
How many goals are expected in FC ML Vitebsk vs FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?
The model expects 2.92 goals (FC ML Vitebsk 2.18 · FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0.74), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC ML Vitebsk vs FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.