Football · Romania Liga III · 18/09, 16:00

Prediction: CSM Alexandria vs Dunarea Giurgiu

Team pages: Dunarea Giurgiu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

CSM Alexandria2

Dunarea Giurgiu0.91

1X2

62% 22% 16%

CSM Alexandria Draw Dunarea Giurgiu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CSM Alexandria 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWDDWL

Dunarea Giurgiu 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDLWWD

Head-to-head

CSM Alexandria 2–2–2 Dunarea Giurgiu (6 last)

Dunarea Giurgiu3-0CSM Alexandria
CSM Alexandria0-1Dunarea Giurgiu
Dunarea Giurgiu0-4CSM Alexandria
CSM Alexandria2-2Dunarea Giurgiu
Dunarea Giurgiu1-1CSM Alexandria
CSM Alexandria3-0Dunarea Giurgiu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CSM Alexandria 1489 · Dunarea Giurgiu 1520

	CSM Alexandria	Draw	Dunarea Giurgiu
Our model	62%	23%	15%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CSM Alexandria	Dunarea Giurgiu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6	4 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	6.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.20

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +22’	1.42	4.20	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CSM Alexandria 2–2–2 Dunarea Giurgiu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/07/26 Romania Cup	Dunarea Giurgiu	3-0 HT 2-0	CSM Alexandria
24/04/26 Romania Liga III	CSM Alexandria	0-1	Dunarea Giurgiu
15/11/25 Romania Liga III	Dunarea Giurgiu	0-4	CSM Alexandria
05/09/25 Romania Liga III	CSM Alexandria	2-2	Dunarea Giurgiu
08/03/25 Romania Liga III	Dunarea Giurgiu	1-1	CSM Alexandria
19/10/24 Romania Liga III	CSM Alexandria	3-0	Dunarea Giurgiu

Standings · Romania Liga III · Liga 3 26/27, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Acs Axi Arena	3	3	0	0	4	0	9
2	Dunarea Giurgiu	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Dinamo Bucharest II	3	2	0	1	2	2	6
4	Progresul Mogosoaia	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	CSM Alexandria	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	CF Inter Ilfov	3	1	1	1	6	6	4
8	Cetatea Turnu Magurele	3	1	0	2	9	3	3
9	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
10	FC Voluntari II	3	0	0	3	0	3	0
11	Oxigen Bucuresti	2	0	0	2	2	7	0
12	Steaua Bucharest II	3	0	0	3	2	14	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CSM Alexandria	Dunarea Giurgiu
AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	1-0 W	2-4 L
CSL Nanov	2-2 D	6-0 W
ACSO Filiasi	2-0 W	1-0 W
Acs Axi Arena	1-2 L	0-2 L
Oltul Curtisoara	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CSM Alexandria (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CSM Alexandria

DLWLLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti Romania Liga III	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
04/09	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti Romania Liga III	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	Progresul Mogosoaia Romania Liga III	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/05	CSL Nanov Romania Liga III	–	2-2	–	–	D
08/05	ACSO Filiasi Romania Liga III	–	2-0	–	–	W
01/05	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
24/04	Dunarea Giurgiu Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti Romania Liga III	0-2	3-2	8	3	W
10/04	Oltul Curtisoara Romania Liga III	–	0-2	–	–	L
27/03	ACSO Filiasi Romania Liga III	1-1	2-2	3	2	D

Dunarea Giurgiu

LLWWWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Oxigen Bucuresti Romania Liga III	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/09	CF Inter Ilfov Romania Liga III	0-0	3-1	4	4	W
29/08	Cetatea Turnu Magurele Romania Liga III	–	2-0	–	–	W
09/05	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti Romania Liga III	1-0	2-4	6	7	L
01/05	Oltul Curtisoara Romania Liga III	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
24/04	CSM Alexandria Romania Liga III	–	1-0	–	–	W
17/04	CSL Nanov Romania Liga III	–	6-0	–	–	W
10/04	ACSO Filiasi Romania Liga III	0-0	1-0	13	10	W
03/04	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
27/03	CS U Craiova II Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CSM Alexandria vs Dunarea Giurgiu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CSM Alexandria win (62%). Probabilities: CSM Alexandria 62%, draw 22%, Dunarea Giurgiu 16%.

How many goals are expected in CSM Alexandria vs Dunarea Giurgiu?

The model expects 2.91 goals (CSM Alexandria 2 · Dunarea Giurgiu 0.91), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CSM Alexandria vs Dunarea Giurgiu?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.