Football · Romania Liga III · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti vs CSM Alexandria

Team pages: AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti · CSM Alexandria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti0.93

CSM Alexandria1.63

1X2

21% 25% 54%

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti Draw CSM Alexandria

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLDLL

CSM Alexandria 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWDLWD

Head-to-head

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 2–4 CSM Alexandria (6 last)

CSM Alexandria1-0AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti2-3CSM Alexandria
CSM Alexandria3-0AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti0-1CSM Alexandria
CSM Alexandria0-2AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti3-1CSM Alexandria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 1378 · CSM Alexandria 1566

	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	Draw	CSM Alexandria
Our model	20%	27%	53%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSM Alexandria (rating 1378 vs 1566).
H2H favours CSM Alexandria: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	CSM Alexandria
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/75/25%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.1	1.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.80

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +6’	4.10	3.80	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 2–0–4 CSM Alexandria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/09/26 Romania Liga III	CSM Alexandria	1-0	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
18/04/26 Romania Liga III	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	2-3 HT 2-0	CSM Alexandria
05/12/25 Romania Liga III	CSM Alexandria	3-0	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
23/09/25 Romania Liga III	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	0-1 HT 0-1	CSM Alexandria
09/05/25 Romania Liga III	CSM Alexandria	0-2 HT 0-0	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
18/04/25 Romania Liga III	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	3-1	CSM Alexandria

Standings · Romania Liga III · Liga 3 26/27, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dunarea Giurgiu	12	7	5	0	31	18	26
2	ACS Inter Ilfov	12	8	2	2	30	17	26
3	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti	12	7	4	1	16	9	25
4	CSM Alexandria	12	6	4	2	16	10	22
5	Steaua Bucharest II	13	6	1	6	29	28	19
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	13	4	4	5	19	24	16
7	Dinamo Bucharest II	13	5	0	8	17	24	15
8	Acs Axi Arena	13	5	0	8	10	21	15
9	FC Voluntari II	13	4	2	7	16	23	14
10	Oxigen Bucuresti	12	4	1	7	15	23	13
11	Cetatea Turnu Magurele	13	2	6	5	25	22	12
12	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	12	2	1	9	12	17	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	CSM Alexandria
Oxigen Bucuresti	0-1 L	2-0 W
ACS Inter Ilfov	2-3 L	0-3 L
Cetatea Turnu Magurele	0-0 D	1-1 D
Dinamo Bucharest II	0-2 L	1-0 W
FC Voluntari II	1-2 L	2-0 W
Acs Axi Arena	1-2 L	2-0 W
Steaua Bucharest II	2-1 W	3-1 W
Dunarea Giurgiu	0-1 L	2-2 D
CS Omega Sport Bucuresti	0-1 L	0-1 L
Progresul Mogosoaia	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 8 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CSM Alexandria (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti

LLLWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Oxigen Bucuresti Romania Liga III	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
30/10	ACS Inter Ilfov Romania Liga III	0-1	2-3	7	5	L
24/10	Cetatea Turnu Magurele Romania Liga III	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
16/10	Dinamo Bucharest II Romania Liga III	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
10/10	FC Voluntari II Romania Liga III	0-1	1-2	11	2	L
02/10	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Steaua Bucharest II Romania Liga III	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/09	Dunarea Giurgiu Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti Romania Liga III	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
12/09	Progresul Mogosoaia Romania Liga III	1-1	1-2	4	2	L

CSM Alexandria

LDWWWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Progresul Mogosoaia Romania Liga III	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
31/10	Oxigen Bucuresti Romania Liga III	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
23/10	ACS Inter Ilfov Romania Liga III	–	0-3	–	–	L
16/10	Cetatea Turnu Magurele Romania Liga III	–	1-1	–	–	D
09/10	Dinamo Bucharest II Romania Liga III	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/10	FC Voluntari II Romania Liga III	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
25/09	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/09	Steaua Bucharest II Romania Liga III	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
18/09	Dunarea Giurgiu Romania Liga III	1-2	2-2	6	8	D
12/09	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti Romania Liga III	0-1	0-1	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti vs CSM Alexandria?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CSM Alexandria win (54%). Probabilities: AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 21%, draw 25%, CSM Alexandria 54%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti vs CSM Alexandria?

The model expects 2.55 goals (AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 0.93 · CSM Alexandria 1.63), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti vs CSM Alexandria?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.