Football · Romania Liga III · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Oxigen Bucuresti vs AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti

Team pages: Oxigen Bucuresti · AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Oxigen Bucuresti1.55

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti1.64

1X2

35% 26% 39%

Oxigen Bucuresti Draw AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Oxigen Bucuresti 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWWLLL

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLDL

Head-to-head

Oxigen Bucuresti 0–1 AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti (1 last)

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti5-1Oxigen Bucuresti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oxigen Bucuresti 1453 · AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 1401

	Oxigen Bucuresti	Draw	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oxigen Bucuresti (rating 1453 vs 1401).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oxigen Bucuresti	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/29/43%	0/71/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	3.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.50

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:41 +51’	2.55	3.50	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oxigen Bucuresti 0–0–1 AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Romania Liga III	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	5-1	Oxigen Bucuresti

Standings · Romania Liga III · Liga 3 26/27, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti	11	7	4	0	15	7	25
2	Dunarea Giurgiu	11	6	5	0	27	16	23
3	ACS Inter Ilfov	11	7	2	2	28	16	23
4	CSM Alexandria	11	6	3	2	16	10	21
5	Acs Axi Arena	11	5	0	6	9	17	15
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	11	4	3	4	17	21	15
7	Cetatea Turnu Magurele	11	2	6	3	21	15	12
8	Dinamo Bucharest II	11	4	0	7	14	20	12
9	FC Voluntari II	11	3	2	6	16	20	11
10	Steaua Bucharest II	11	3	1	7	22	30	10
11	Oxigen Bucuresti	11	3	1	7	14	23	10
12	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	11	2	1	8	12	16	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oxigen Bucuresti	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti
CSM Alexandria	0-2 L	0-1 L
Progresul Mogosoaia	2-4 L	1-2 L
ACS Inter Ilfov	1-3 L	2-3 L
Cetatea Turnu Magurele	2-0 W	0-0 D
Dinamo Bucharest II	2-1 W	0-2 L
FC Voluntari II	1-2 L	1-2 L
Acs Axi Arena	1-0 W	1-2 L
Steaua Bucharest II	1-2 L	2-1 W
Dunarea Giurgiu	2-2 D	0-1 L
CS Omega Sport Bucuresti	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	1 W 1 D 8 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oxigen Bucuresti

LDLWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CSM Alexandria Romania Liga III	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
24/10	Progresul Mogosoaia Romania Liga III	1-4	2-4	5	4	L
16/10	ACS Inter Ilfov Romania Liga III	1-3	1-3	4	3	L
09/10	Cetatea Turnu Magurele Romania Liga III	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
02/10	Dinamo Bucharest II Romania Liga III	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
25/09	FC Voluntari II Romania Liga III	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/09	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/09	Steaua Bucharest II Romania Liga III	–	1-2	4	1	L
12/09	Dunarea Giurgiu Romania Liga III	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/09	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti Romania Liga III	–	1-2	2	7	L

AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti

LLLLWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	ACS Inter Ilfov Romania Liga III	0-1	2-3	7	5	L
24/10	Cetatea Turnu Magurele Romania Liga III	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
16/10	Dinamo Bucharest II Romania Liga III	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
10/10	FC Voluntari II Romania Liga III	0-1	1-2	11	2	L
02/10	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Steaua Bucharest II Romania Liga III	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/09	Dunarea Giurgiu Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti Romania Liga III	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
12/09	Progresul Mogosoaia Romania Liga III	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
04/09	CSM Alexandria Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oxigen Bucuresti vs AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti win (39%). Probabilities: Oxigen Bucuresti 35%, draw 26%, AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 39%.

How many goals are expected in Oxigen Bucuresti vs AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Oxigen Bucuresti 1.55 · AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti 1.64), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Oxigen Bucuresti vs AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.