Football · Croatia HNL · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Team pages: Hajduk Split · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Hajduk Split2.13

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0.96

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Hajduk Split Draw NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Hajduk Split 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWLDWW

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDDDWWLL

Head-to-head

Hajduk Split 3–2–1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (6 last)

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-1Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-3Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Hajduk Split1-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb3-2Hajduk Split

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hajduk Split 1567 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1512

	Hajduk Split	Draw	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	63%	22%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hajduk Split (rating 1567 vs 1512).
H2H favours Hajduk Split: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hajduk Split	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	1.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:29 +1’	1.42	4.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hajduk Split 3–2–1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-1 HT 1-1	Hajduk Split
15/03/26 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	2-1 HT 2-0	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
13/12/25 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-3 HT 1-1	Hajduk Split
27/09/25 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	2-0 HT 1-0	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
13/04/25 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
02/02/25 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	3-2 HT 2-1	Hajduk Split

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Zagreb	3	3	0	0	9	1	9
2	NK Osijek	4	3	0	1	9	5	9
2	NK Varazdin	4	3	0	1	9	5	9
4	Hajduk Split	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
5	HNK Rijeka	3	2	0	1	5	5	6
6	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	4	2	0	2	7	8	6
7	Istra 1961	4	1	1	2	9	8	4
8	Slaven Belupo	4	1	0	3	3	9	3
9	NK Rudes	4	1	0	3	6	13	3
10	HNK Gorica	4	0	0	4	2	9	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hajduk Split	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Osijek	4-0 W	0-1 L
HNK Gorica	2-1 W	3-1 W
Istra 1961	2-2 D	3-2 W
NK Varazdin	1-2 L	1-1 D
Dinamo Zagreb	0-2 L	0-0 D
HNK Rijeka	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hajduk Split

LDWLDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	4-0	0	5	W
16/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
09/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
02/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
22/05	Vukovar 91 Croatia HNL	3-2	6-3	8	2	W
16/05	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-1	1-1	4	1	D
09/05	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
03/05	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
26/04	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
21/04	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

WDLDDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	1-1	1-4	5	4	L
15/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	3-1	9	8	W
01/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/05	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
16/05	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
09/05	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/05	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
25/04	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
21/04	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	1-1	2-1	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hajduk Split win (63%). Probabilities: Hajduk Split 63%, draw 22%, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 15%.

How many goals are expected in Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Hajduk Split 2.13 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.96), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.