Football · Greece Gamma Ethniki · 27/09, 15:00
Prediction: AER Afantou vs Ionikos Nikaia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
AER Afantou1.59
Ionikos Nikaia1.1
1X2
AER Afantou
Draw
Ionikos Nikaia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
AER Afantou
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Ionikos Nikaia
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AER Afantou 1456 · Ionikos Nikaia 1520
| AER Afantou | Draw | Ionikos Nikaia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ionikos Nikaia (rating 1456 vs 1520).
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AER Afantou | Ionikos Nikaia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/11/67% | 14/57/29% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3 | 1.8 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Standings · Greece Gamma Ethniki · Gamma Ethniki 26/27, Group 8
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AER Afantou | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Amfiali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Apollon Kalithion FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Apollon Smyrnis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Diagoras | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Doxa Vyrona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Egaleo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ethnikos OFPF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ialysos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ionikos Nikaia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pao Rouf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Proodeftiki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AER Afantou
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04 | AO Mikrasiatikos Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 05/04 | Aris Petroupolis Greece Gamma Ethniki |
2-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/04 | AON Artaki Greece Gamma Ethniki |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | AO Karystou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/03 | Diagoras Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 01/03 | Doxa Vyrona Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 20/02 | AO Karystou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/02 | AO Neas Ionias Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 07/02 | AO Mikrasiatikos Greece Gamma Ethniki |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 31/01 | Kentavros Vrilission Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Ionikos Nikaia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04 | Ethnikos OFPF Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 05/04 | Thyella Rafinas Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 01/04 | Mykonos Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/03 | Saronikos Anavyssou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | Kyanos Astir Varis Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 01/03 | Kyanos Astir Varis Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 21/02 | Atsalenios Greece Gamma Ethniki |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/02 | Aias Salaminas Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/02 | Granitis Agias Marinas Greece Gamma Ethniki |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/02 | AO Giouchtas Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AER Afantou vs Ionikos Nikaia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AER Afantou win (47%). Probabilities: AER Afantou 47%, draw 28%, Ionikos Nikaia 25%.
How many goals are expected in AER Afantou vs Ionikos Nikaia?
The model expects 2.69 goals (AER Afantou 1.59 · Ionikos Nikaia 1.1), with a 60% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in AER Afantou vs Ionikos Nikaia?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.