Football · Greece Gamma Ethniki · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: Thyella Rafinas vs AO Neas Ionias

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Thyella Rafinas1.83

AO Neas Ionias0.72

1X2

63% 23% 13%

Thyella Rafinas Draw AO Neas Ionias

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Thyella Rafinas 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLDLWD

AO Neas Ionias 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Thyella Rafinas 0–1–1 AO Neas Ionias (2 last)

AO Neas Ionias0-0Thyella Rafinas
Thyella Rafinas0-1AO Neas Ionias

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Thyella Rafinas 1491 · AO Neas Ionias 1435

	Thyella Rafinas	Draw	AO Neas Ionias
Our model	63%	24%	13%
Market	64%	23%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thyella Rafinas (rating 1491 vs 1435).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Thyella Rafinas	AO Neas Ionias
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	14/43/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.9	0.5 / 2.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.40

X3.90

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +59’	1.40	3.90	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Thyella Rafinas 0–1–1 AO Neas Ionias

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/02/25 Greece Gamma Ethniki	AO Neas Ionias	0-0 HT 0-0	Thyella Rafinas
03/11/24 Greece Gamma Ethniki	Thyella Rafinas	0-1 HT 0-0	AO Neas Ionias

Standings · Greece Gamma Ethniki · Gamma Ethniki 26/27, Group 9

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AS Ano Mera	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AO Neas Ionias	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AO Neos Acharnaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Thyella Rafinas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Asteras Magoulas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ethnikos Asteras	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ilioupoli	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ilisiakos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kyanos Astir Varis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pannaxiakos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Saronikos Anavyssou	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Thyella Rafinas

WLWDLLDLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/04	Mykonos Greece Gamma Ethniki	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/04	Ionikos Nikaia Greece Gamma Ethniki	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/04	Saronikos Anavyssou Greece Gamma Ethniki	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
28/03	Kyanos Astir Varis Greece Gamma Ethniki	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
22/03	Ethnikos OFPF Greece Gamma Ethniki	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
01/03	Aias Salaminas Greece Gamma Ethniki	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
21/02	Granitis Agias Marinas Greece Gamma Ethniki	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/02	AO Giouchtas Greece Gamma Ethniki	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
08/02	Saronikos Anavyssou Greece Gamma Ethniki	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
01/02	AO Chaidari Greece Gamma Ethniki	1-1	2-1	4	6	W

AO Neas Ionias

LLLLLLLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/04	Apollon Kalithion FC Greece Gamma Ethniki	0-1	4-2	4	3	W
05/04	Kentavros Vrilission Greece Gamma Ethniki	0-3	0-4	1	5	L
28/03	Amarinthiakos FC Greece Gamma Ethniki	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
22/03	Doxa Vyrona Greece Gamma Ethniki	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
01/03	AON Artaki Greece Gamma Ethniki	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
13/02	AER Afantou Greece Gamma Ethniki	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
07/02	AO Karystou Greece Gamma Ethniki	–	1-2	–	–	L
01/02	Doxa Vyrona Greece Gamma Ethniki	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
25/01	AO Mikrasiatikos Greece Gamma Ethniki	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/01	Kentavros Vrilission Greece Gamma Ethniki	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Thyella Rafinas vs AO Neas Ionias?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Thyella Rafinas win (63%). Probabilities: Thyella Rafinas 63%, draw 23%, AO Neas Ionias 13%.

How many goals are expected in Thyella Rafinas vs AO Neas Ionias?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Thyella Rafinas 1.83 · AO Neas Ionias 0.72), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Thyella Rafinas vs AO Neas Ionias?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.