Football · Botswana Premier League · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: BDF XI vs Nico United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

BDF XI1.11

Nico United1.06

1X2

36% 31% 33%

BDF XI Draw Nico United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

BDF XI 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDLLL

Nico United 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLDDDLL

Head-to-head

BDF XI 0–4–2 Nico United (6 last)

BDF XI1-1Nico United
Nico United2-1BDF XI
BDF XI1-2Nico United
Nico United0-0BDF XI
Nico United0-0BDF XI
BDF XI1-1Nico United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BDF XI 1424 · Nico United 1496

	BDF XI	Draw	Nico United
Our model	35%	32%	33%
Market	36%	31%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nico United (rating 1424 vs 1496).
H2H favours Nico United: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BDF XI	Nico United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	0.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/67/17%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.2	5 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X2.90

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:57 +9’	2.50	2.90	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BDF XI 0–4–2 Nico United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Botswana Premier League	BDF XI	1-1	Nico United
17/09/25 Botswana Premier League	Nico United	2-1	BDF XI
17/05/25 Botswana Premier League	BDF XI	1-2	Nico United
20/10/24 Botswana Premier League	Nico United	0-0	BDF XI
06/04/24 Botswana Premier League	Nico United	0-0	BDF XI
25/11/23 Botswana Premier League	BDF XI	1-1	Nico United

Standings · Botswana Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BDF XI	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Enesia FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Extension Gunners	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gaborone United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jwaneng Galaxy FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Matebele FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Centre Chiefs	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Morupule Wanderers FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nico United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Orapa United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Botswana Police XI SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Prisons XI Gaborone	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sua Flamingoes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tafic FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tonota FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Township Rollers	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BDF XI	Nico United
Township Rollers	0-1 L	0-1 L
Extension Gunners	1-1 D	0-2 L
Sua Flamingoes	1-3 L	2-2 D
Tafic FC	0-4 L	0-0 D
Orapa United	0-2 L	0-1 L
Santa Green	3-0 W	1-1 D
Jwaneng Galaxy FC	2-6 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nico United (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BDF XI

LWLWLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Gaborone United Botswana Premier League	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
12/05	Centre Chiefs Botswana Premier League	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
06/05	Township Rollers Botswana Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
25/04	Extension Gunners Botswana Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Sua Flamingoes Botswana Premier League	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
04/04	Tafic FC Botswana Premier League	–	0-4	–	–	L
18/03	Botswana Police XI SC Botswana Premier League	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
14/03	Orapa United Botswana Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
07/03	Santa Green Botswana Premier League	0-0	3-0	2	1	W
28/02	Jwaneng Galaxy FC Botswana Premier League	–	2-6	–	–	L

Nico United

DWDWLDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Orapa United Botswana Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/05	Extension Gunners Botswana Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
05/05	Tafic FC Botswana Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Morupule Wanderers FC Botswana Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
11/04	Matebele FC Botswana Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
04/04	Township Rollers Botswana Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/03	Jwaneng Galaxy FC Botswana Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
14/03	Sua Flamingoes Botswana Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
28/02	Black Lions FC Botswana Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
22/02	Santa Green Botswana Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BDF XI vs Nico United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BDF XI win (36%). Probabilities: BDF XI 36%, draw 31%, Nico United 33%.

How many goals are expected in BDF XI vs Nico United?

The model expects 2.17 goals (BDF XI 1.11 · Nico United 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in BDF XI vs Nico United?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.