Football · Armenia Premier League · 05/09, 17:00
Prediction: Ararat Yerevan vs Ararat Armenia
Team pages: Ararat Yerevan · Ararat Armenia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.09Total
Ararat Yerevan0.89
Ararat Armenia2.21
1X2
Ararat Yerevan
Draw
Ararat Armenia
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
0-2 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Ararat Yerevan
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Ararat Armenia
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ararat Yerevan
0–1–5
Ararat Armenia
(6 last)
- Ararat Armenia4-0Ararat Yerevan
- Ararat Yerevan1-2Ararat Armenia
- Ararat Armenia4-2Ararat Yerevan
- Ararat Armenia6-0Ararat Yerevan
- Ararat Yerevan0-0Ararat Armenia
- Ararat Armenia3-2Ararat Yerevan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ararat Yerevan 1436 · Ararat Armenia 1559
| Ararat Yerevan | Draw | Ararat Armenia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 21% | 66% |
| Market | 14% | 19% | 67% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ararat Armenia (rating 1436 vs 1559).
- H2H favours Ararat Armenia: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ararat Yerevan | Ararat Armenia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.6 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5.1 | 3 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ararat Yerevan 0–1–5 Ararat Armenia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Armenia Premier League | Ararat Armenia | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Ararat Yerevan |
| 21/11/25 Armenia Premier League | Ararat Yerevan | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ararat Armenia |
| 30/08/25 Armenia Premier League | Ararat Armenia | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Ararat Yerevan |
| 28/05/25 Armenia Premier League | Ararat Armenia | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Ararat Yerevan |
| 10/11/24 Armenia Premier League | Ararat Yerevan | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ararat Armenia |
| 18/10/24 Armenia Premier League | Ararat Armenia | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Ararat Yerevan |
Standings · Armenia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 15 |
| 2 | Alashkert FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Sardarapat FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Pyunik Yerevan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Ararat Armenia | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Urartu | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Shirak | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | BKMA FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 9 | Gandzasar Kapan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 3 |
| 10 | Ararat Yerevan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
| 11 | Syunik | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| 12 | FC Van | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ararat Yerevan | Ararat Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| FC Noah | 0-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Pyunik Yerevan | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| BKMA FC | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Sardarapat FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| FC Urartu | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Ararat Armenia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ararat Yerevan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | FC Noah Armenia Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | BKMA FC Armenia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 07/08 | Sardarapat FC Armenia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 26/05 | BKMA FC Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 19/05 | FC Noah Armenia Premier League |
1-3 | 3-8 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Urartu Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/05 | Shirak Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
Ararat Armenia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Sardarapat FC Armenia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | FC Van Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 07/08 | FC Urartu Armenia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 27/05 | Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | BKMA FC Armenia Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Noah Armenia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 06/05 | Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | FC Urartu Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ararat Yerevan vs Ararat Armenia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ararat Armenia win (67%). Probabilities: Ararat Yerevan 13%, draw 20%, Ararat Armenia 67%.
How many goals are expected in Ararat Yerevan vs Ararat Armenia?
The model expects 3.09 goals (Ararat Yerevan 0.89 · Ararat Armenia 2.21), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ararat Yerevan vs Ararat Armenia?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.