Football · Armenia Premier League · 06/09, 15:00

Prediction: BKMA FC vs FC Urartu

Team pages: BKMA FC · FC Urartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

BKMA FC0.95

FC Urartu1.81

1X2

19% 24% 57%

BKMA FC Draw FC Urartu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

BKMA FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLDDLLLW

FC Urartu 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLDLWWD

Head-to-head

BKMA FC 0–1–5 FC Urartu (6 last)

BKMA FC0-1FC Urartu
FC Urartu4-1BKMA FC
BKMA FC1-1FC Urartu
BKMA FC0-1FC Urartu
FC Urartu4-2BKMA FC
BKMA FC0-4FC Urartu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BKMA FC 1447 · FC Urartu 1514

	BKMA FC	Draw	FC Urartu
Our model	18%	25%	57%
Market	19%	24%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Urartu (rating 1447 vs 1514).
H2H favours FC Urartu: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BKMA FC	FC Urartu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.1	1.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.75

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.67 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +11’	4.75	3.75	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:21 +1’	4.46	3.71	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BKMA FC 0–1–5 FC Urartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Armenia Premier League	BKMA FC	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Urartu
15/03/26 Armenia Premier League	FC Urartu	4-1 HT 1-0	BKMA FC
02/08/25 Armenia Premier League	BKMA FC	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Urartu
11/05/25 Armenia Premier League	BKMA FC	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Urartu
06/11/24 Armenia Premier League	FC Urartu	4-2 HT 3-0	BKMA FC
03/10/24 Armenian Cup	BKMA FC	0-4 HT 0-2	FC Urartu

Standings · Armenia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Noah	6	6	0	0	16	5	18
2	Alashkert FC	6	4	1	1	14	2	13
3	Pyunik Yerevan	5	3	2	0	9	3	11
4	Sardarapat FC	4	3	1	0	10	4	10
5	Ararat Armenia	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
6	FC Urartu	5	2	2	1	8	5	8
7	Shirak	5	2	1	2	8	5	7
8	BKMA FC	5	1	1	3	4	6	4
9	Gandzasar Kapan	6	1	0	5	8	15	3
10	Ararat Yerevan	5	1	0	4	3	12	3
11	Syunik	6	0	2	4	3	13	2
12	FC Van	6	0	1	5	2	18	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BKMA FC	FC Urartu
FC Noah	0-1 L	0-5 L
Ararat Yerevan	1-2 L	1-0 W
Alashkert FC	0-3 L	1-1 D
Shirak	0-0 D	1-0 W
Ararat Armenia	2-3 L	1-2 L
Pyunik Yerevan	0-2 L	2-2 D
FC Van	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Urartu (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BKMA FC

WDLLDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
23/08	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
15/08	Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
10/08	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	0-2	0-3	7	0	L
01/08	Shirak Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
26/05	Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
17/05	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	1-0	2-3	3	3	L
09/05	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
02/05	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	0-1	2-2	1	4	D
23/04	FC Van Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-1	6	6	W

FC Urartu

WLWDLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
22/08	Shirak Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
13/08	Syunik Armenia Premier League	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
07/08	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
02/08	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
27/05	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-2	0-5	4	0	L
18/05	Shirak Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
10/05	Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
03/05	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
26/04	FC Van Armenia Premier League	2-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BKMA FC vs FC Urartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Urartu win (57%). Probabilities: BKMA FC 19%, draw 24%, FC Urartu 57%.

How many goals are expected in BKMA FC vs FC Urartu?

The model expects 2.75 goals (BKMA FC 0.95 · FC Urartu 1.81), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in BKMA FC vs FC Urartu?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.