Football · Albania First Division · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: Kastrioti Krujë vs KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje

Team pages: Kastrioti Krujë · KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Kastrioti Krujë1.38

KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje1.11

1X2

42% 28% 29%

Kastrioti Krujë Draw KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Kastrioti Krujë 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLWDWL

KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWDDLW

Head-to-head

Kastrioti Krujë 2–1–3 KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje (6 last)

KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje1-0Kastrioti Krujë
KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje0-1Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë1-1KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
Kastrioti Krujë1-0KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje2-1Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë2-3KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kastrioti Krujë 1495 · KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje 1527

	Kastrioti Krujë	Draw	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kastrioti Krujë	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 4	2.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +11’	2.10	3.25	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kastrioti Krujë 2–1–3 KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Albania First Division	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	1-0 HT 1-0	Kastrioti Krujë
17/01/26 Albania First Division	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	0-1 HT 0-0	Kastrioti Krujë
19/10/25 Albania First Division	Kastrioti Krujë	1-1 HT 1-0	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
02/10/19 Albania Cup	Kastrioti Krujë	1-0 HT 1-0	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
18/09/19 Albania Cup	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	2-1 HT 2-1	Kastrioti Krujë
15/04/17 Albania First Division	Kastrioti Krujë	2-3 HT 2-2	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje

Standings · Albania First Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogradeci	6	3	3	0	9	3	12
2	Besa Kavaje	6	3	1	2	15	7	10
3	Bylis Ballsh	6	2	4	0	5	3	10
4	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	KS Flamurtari Vlore	6	2	3	1	10	6	9
6	FK Kukesi	6	3	0	3	8	7	9
7	KF Beselidhja Lezhe	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
8	KS Korabi Peshkopi	6	2	2	2	4	7	8
9	Kastrioti Krujë	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
10	KS Sopoti Librazhd	6	1	3	2	7	11	6
11	KS Burreli	6	1	3	2	5	7	6
12	KF Oriku	6	0	0	6	2	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kastrioti Krujë	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
Pogradeci	1-2 L	0-0 D
KS Burreli	2-2 D	1-0 W
KS Lushnja	4-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kastrioti Krujë

LLWLDLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	KF Beselidhja Lezhe Albania First Division	1-1	1-4	2	0	L
11/10	KF Oriku Albania First Division	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
20/09	KS Sopoti Librazhd Albania First Division	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/09	KS Flamurtari Vlore Albania First Division	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
12/09	Pogradeci Albania First Division	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
06/09	KS Burreli Albania First Division	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
07/05	Pogradeci Albania First Division	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
03/05	KS Lushnja Albania First Division	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
25/04	Luftetari Albania First Division	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/04	Skenderbeu Korce Albania First Division	0-2	0-4	–	–	L

KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje

WWDLDWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	KS Burreli Albania First Division	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
11/10	Besa Kavaje Albania First Division	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Bylis Ballsh Albania First Division	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
16/09	KS Korabi Peshkopi Albania First Division	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	FK Kukesi Albania First Division	2-0	3-1	2	7	W
05/09	Pogradeci Albania First Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
07/05	Besa Kavaje Albania First Division	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	KS Korabi Peshkopi Albania First Division	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Apolonia Fier Albania First Division	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/04	KS Lushnja Albania First Division	1-0	3-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kastrioti Krujë vs KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kastrioti Krujë win (42%). Probabilities: Kastrioti Krujë 42%, draw 28%, KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje 29%.

How many goals are expected in Kastrioti Krujë vs KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Kastrioti Krujë 1.38 · KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje 1.11), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kastrioti Krujë vs KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.