Football · Albania First Division · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: KS Burreli vs FK Kukesi

Team pages: KS Burreli · FK Kukesi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

KS Burreli1.17

FK Kukesi1.17

1X2

35% 30% 35%

KS Burreli Draw FK Kukesi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

KS Burreli 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDLWDL

FK Kukesi 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

KS Burreli 3–2–1 FK Kukesi (6 last)

KS Burreli0-0FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi2-0KS Burreli
KS Burreli2-0FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi1-2KS Burreli
FK Kukesi0-3KS Burreli
KS Burreli0-0FK Kukesi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KS Burreli 1448 · FK Kukesi 1519

	KS Burreli	Draw	FK Kukesi
Our model	35%	31%	35%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kukesi (rating 1448 vs 1519).
H2H favours KS Burreli: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KS Burreli	FK Kukesi
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.4	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.00

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:04 +6’	2.55	3.00	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KS Burreli 3–2–1 FK Kukesi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Albania First Division	KS Burreli	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Kukesi
29/11/25 Albania First Division	FK Kukesi	2-0 HT 0-0	KS Burreli
30/08/25 Albania First Division	KS Burreli	2-0 HT 2-0	FK Kukesi
20/04/25 Albania First Division	FK Kukesi	1-2 HT 0-1	KS Burreli
08/02/25 Albania First Division	FK Kukesi	0-3 HT 0-1	KS Burreli
03/11/24 Albania First Division	KS Burreli	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Kukesi

Standings · Albania First Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogradeci	6	3	3	0	9	3	12
2	Besa Kavaje	6	3	1	2	15	7	10
3	Bylis Ballsh	6	2	4	0	5	3	10
4	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	KS Flamurtari Vlore	6	2	3	1	10	6	9
6	FK Kukesi	6	3	0	3	8	7	9
7	KF Beselidhja Lezhe	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
8	KS Korabi Peshkopi	6	2	2	2	4	7	8
9	Kastrioti Krujë	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
10	KS Sopoti Librazhd	6	1	3	2	7	11	6
11	KS Burreli	6	1	3	2	5	7	6
12	KF Oriku	6	0	0	6	2	15	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KS Burreli	FK Kukesi
KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	0-1 L	1-3 L
KF Beselidhja Lezhe	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KS Burreli

LLWDDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje Albania First Division	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
11/10	KF Beselidhja Lezhe Albania First Division	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
20/09	KF Oriku Albania First Division	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
16/09	KS Sopoti Librazhd Albania First Division	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
11/09	KS Flamurtari Vlore Albania First Division	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Kastrioti Krujë Albania First Division	1-2	2-2	3	2	D
03/05	Apolonia Fier Albania First Division	1-0	4-4	2	1	D
25/04	KS Lushnja Albania First Division	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
19/04	Luftetari Albania First Division	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
11/04	Skenderbeu Korce Albania First Division	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

FK Kukesi

LDLWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Besa Kavaje Albania First Division	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
10/10	Bylis Ballsh Albania First Division	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
20/09	KS Korabi Peshkopi Albania First Division	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
16/09	Pogradeci Albania First Division	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
12/09	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje Albania First Division	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
05/09	KF Beselidhja Lezhe Albania First Division	2-0	2-0	3	10	W
03/05	Besa Kavaje Albania First Division	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
25/04	Laci Albania First Division	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/04	KS Korabi Peshkopi Albania First Division	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
11/04	Pogradeci Albania First Division	1-4	1-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KS Burreli vs FK Kukesi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KS Burreli win (35%). Probabilities: KS Burreli 35%, draw 30%, FK Kukesi 35%.

How many goals are expected in KS Burreli vs FK Kukesi?

The model expects 2.34 goals (KS Burreli 1.17 · FK Kukesi 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KS Burreli vs FK Kukesi?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.