Football · Moldova Divizia Nationala · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: FC Politehnica Chisinau vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Team pages: FC Politehnica Chisinau · Sheriff Tiraspol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

FC Politehnica Chisinau0.79

Sheriff Tiraspol2.41

1X2

10% 17% 73%

FC Politehnica Chisinau Draw Sheriff Tiraspol

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Politehnica Chisinau 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWLLDW

Sheriff Tiraspol 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDWWWW

Head-to-head

FC Politehnica Chisinau 0–1–4 Sheriff Tiraspol (5 last)

Sheriff Tiraspol4-0FC Politehnica Chisinau
FC Politehnica Chisinau0-0Sheriff Tiraspol
FC Politehnica Chisinau1-2Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol3-0FC Politehnica Chisinau
FC Politehnica Chisinau0-4Sheriff Tiraspol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Politehnica Chisinau 1492 · Sheriff Tiraspol 1571

	FC Politehnica Chisinau	Draw	Sheriff Tiraspol
Our model	10%	18%	72%
Market	11%	16%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sheriff Tiraspol (rating 1492 vs 1571).
H2H favours Sheriff Tiraspol: 4-1-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Politehnica Chisinau	Sheriff Tiraspol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	2.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	3.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

18.50

X5.50

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.98

2 (-1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +9’	8.50	5.50	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Politehnica Chisinau 0–1–4 Sheriff Tiraspol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Moldova Divizia Nationala	Sheriff Tiraspol	4-0 HT 1-0	FC Politehnica Chisinau
04/07/26 Moldova Divizia Nationala	FC Politehnica Chisinau	0-0 HT 0-0	Sheriff Tiraspol
04/10/25 Moldova Divizia Nationala	FC Politehnica Chisinau	1-2 HT 1-1	Sheriff Tiraspol
10/08/25 Moldova Divizia Nationala	Sheriff Tiraspol	3-0 HT 3-0	FC Politehnica Chisinau
22/06/25 Moldova Divizia Nationala	FC Politehnica Chisinau	0-4 HT 0-2	Sheriff Tiraspol

Standings · Moldova Divizia Nationala

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	15	10	4	1	39	12	34
2	Zimbru Chisinau	15	8	4	3	29	14	28
3	CS Petrocub	15	7	5	3	25	14	26
4	Dacia Buiucani	15	6	3	6	19	21	21
5	FC Politehnica Chisinau	15	5	4	6	25	23	19
6	FC Milsami	15	4	7	4	17	21	19
7	FC Real Sireti	15	1	7	7	11	21	10
8	FC Balti	15	1	2	12	10	49	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Politehnica Chisinau	Sheriff Tiraspol
FC Balti	4-1 W	7-0 W
FC Milsami	3-3 D	1-0 W
CS Petrocub	0-1 L	2-2 D
Zimbru Chisinau	1-2 L	1-2 L
Dacia Buiucani	2-1 W	5-2 W
FC Real Sireti	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sheriff Tiraspol (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Politehnica Chisinau

LDWLDWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Balti Moldova Divizia Nationala	3-0	4-1	7	1	W
11/10	FC Milsami Moldova Divizia Nationala	1-2	3-3	5	4	D
19/09	CS Petrocub Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
12/09	Zimbru Chisinau Moldova Divizia Nationala	1-1	1-2	0	2	L
05/09	Dacia Buiucani Moldova Divizia Nationala	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
29/08	FC Real Sireti Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-0	0-0	13	0	D
23/08	Sheriff Tiraspol Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-1	0-4	0	5	L
15/08	FC Balti Moldova Divizia Nationala	5-0	6-0	7	2	W
08/08	FC Milsami Moldova Divizia Nationala	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	CS Petrocub Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-1	1-3	3	1	L

Sheriff Tiraspol

WWDWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Real Sireti Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
10/10	Dacia Buiucani Moldova Divizia Nationala	2-0	5-2	2	9	W
20/09	FC Balti Moldova Divizia Nationala	3-0	7-0	9	0	W
13/09	FC Milsami Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
05/09	CS Petrocub Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-0	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	Zimbru Chisinau Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
23/08	FC Politehnica Chisinau Moldova Divizia Nationala	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
16/08	FC Real Sireti Moldova Divizia Nationala	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
09/08	Dacia Buiucani Moldova Divizia Nationala	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
02/08	FC Balti Moldova Divizia Nationala	3-1	5-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Politehnica Chisinau vs Sheriff Tiraspol?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sheriff Tiraspol win (73%). Probabilities: FC Politehnica Chisinau 10%, draw 17%, Sheriff Tiraspol 73%.

How many goals are expected in FC Politehnica Chisinau vs Sheriff Tiraspol?

The model expects 3.2 goals (FC Politehnica Chisinau 0.79 · Sheriff Tiraspol 2.41), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Politehnica Chisinau vs Sheriff Tiraspol?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.